OFFICIAL NCAAF Rank'em thread: October 14, 2007 - Page 16

NozeCandy · #**151** 10-16-2007, 03:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There are a couple minor problems (see offensive coordinator) that need to be fixed but throwing away everything and start from scratch would be silly, if not dangerous.

[/ QUOTE ]
Uhhh, bad OC is a major problem. Throw in a bad DC who can't adjust to save his life and you have another major problem. Throw in a head coach who won't do anything about either since both are tried and true Michigan Men and you have another issue. Bringing in Les Miles and whoever he wants as OC and DC (he has been proven to hire very good ones) would not be dangerous, at least not to us.

MyTurn2Raise · #**152** 10-16-2007, 03:37 PM

you're right NozeCandy

Lloyd Carr is really good at taking superb talent and just managing the wins v lesser teams.

He is very poor at playing other teams of his talent level and out-scheming/out-adjusting/out-anything them

I'll give him credit for not having the super embarrassing loss until this year (although the Illinois one in '99 and Minnesota in '05 must sting)

The one case that highlights the difference between him and a tressel quality is last year's tOSU-Mich game. All season, Ohio State had been a very balanced attack with running backs, tight ends, and 2-3 wideouts. Right off the bat, Ohio State came out with 4 wideouts and looked more like a June Jones offense than the Ohio State one had seen all year. It was unreal. Tressel saw the weak point of Michigan (a 4-game losing streak weak point) and completely added a new offensive package to destroy it over and over.

For Lloyd, there is nothing innovative ever. He can do well using superior talent. He can do well battling JoePa, who also fails to evolve. Carr cannot do well adopting to the evolving game verse equal talent. His "stud" defense has been rendered hapless verse Texas and Vince Young in the Rose Bowl, Bill Callahan's west coast offense, Ohio State's 4 wideout attack last season, USC copying Ohio State's wideouts, and App St and Oregon's shotgun spread attack. Hell, a few years ago, they were punched in the mouth when Iowa brought the zone rushing attack to the Big11Ten.

It's been the HUGE talent gap between Michigan and most of the Big11Ten that has vaulted Lloyd's record. Yes, recruiting is a big part of coaching and Carr gets credit. However, one wonders if a deaf, blind monkey could recruit top15 classes at Michigan. It appears Lloyd the Neanderthal can. (Yes, that is the nickname my friends and I use for Lloyd.) He is thawed out from a different era.

MyTurn2Raise · #**153** 10-16-2007, 03:47 PM

oh yeah...this isn't hindsight...I've been on Lloyd Carr forever

IIRC, I also commented on tressel's genius last season with that adjustment on the very first set of downs

BigSoonerFan · #**154** 10-16-2007, 04:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2947988

There's a link showing stats from 1997 to 2006. This will drop off immensely once 1997 is off the 10 year range. Aside from general history, 1997 is not relevant anymore.

MT2R, can I get some help here? You know, from someone who actually knows something about the program?

[/ QUOTE ]

3. Texas (1 NC, 1 conference title)
5. OU (1 NC, 4 conference titles)

yeah right

iggymcfly · #**155** 10-16-2007, 04:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's been the HUGE talent gap between Michigan and most of the Big11Ten that has vaulted Lloyd's record. Yes, recruiting is a big part of coaching and Carr gets credit. However, one wonders if a deaf, blind monkey could recruit top15 classes at Michigan. It appears Lloyd the Neanderthal can. (Yes, that is the nickname my friends and I use for Lloyd.) He is thawed out from a different era.

[/ QUOTE ]

Five years ago, you could have said the same thing about Florida State, Florida, Tennessee, or Nebraska. Yet those programs have winning percentages of .661, .703, .656, and .609 over that period while Michigan enjoys a winning percentage of .746 over the same five years. Lloyd Carr's obviously doing something very right.

And I'm cherry-picking a lot less than you'd think with those selections. Going into 2002, the premier programs in college football along with the five teams I listed were Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Miami. USC and Texas hadn't fully risen to prominence yet so they wouldn't be a fair comparison. Of those 7 other programs, Michigan clearly outperformed 4, was outperformed by 2 and played about even with the other one (Miami). If Lloyd Carr's as bad of a game coach as you make him out to be, he must be a ridiculously good recruiter to even be able to compete.

I guess part of it's how you view the role of the head coach. The way I see it, the primary responsibilities of a head coach are to recruit good talent and to be the public face of the program. Anything else is a bonus. Yes, you'll occasionally get an Urban Meyer or a Steve Spurrier that has great scheme ideas, but for the most part, play-calling and schemes are the coordinators' responsibilities.

With the overall success that Michigan's had, it seems obvious that Lloyd Carr's done something right to the point that his results have been better than those of the majority of coaches at elite programs. If his weakness (conservative schemes) is so easily fixable with a couple of new assistants, it seems like that's a much more practical solution than just throwing him out on his head.

NozeCandy · #**156** 10-16-2007, 04:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anything else is a bonus.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well almost anyone else would demand decent playcalling and adjustments to take advantage of opponents weaknesses. If the head coach is unwilling or unable to do this, the coordinators can't pick up all the slack even if they are good.

[ QUOTE ]
If his weakness (conservative schemes) is so easily fixable with a couple of new assistants, it seems like that's a much more practical solution than just throwing him out on his head.

[/ QUOTE ]
The thing is, by this point, Carr won't evolve no matter who is in his ear. We've gotten burned by the same crap for so long it's not even funny. Keeping him around could lead to a JoePa type situation (mired in mediocrity) and would actually hurt recruiting eventually if uncertainty persists, which, at his age and with his recent history, it would.

Given that next year a bunch of new guys will be all over the place, I would rather a new coach come in and start getting his scheme in place now instead of later. A coaching change is going to have to come eventually, so you'll have to deal with the danger and uncertainty of it sometime, and it just makes a lot of sense to do it after this year given what transpired and who is graduating.

FWIW, my opinion wouldn't change even if we won out and beat someone decent in a BCS game. I'd be glad Carr went out on a good note, but it's just time for him to go.

Hornacek · #**157** 10-16-2007, 11:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Specific failings? You think that was a fluke? You think that team was going to be even close to USC, Florida, Cal, or LSU? So Michigan getting worked by USC was also a fluke? That Texas team was one VY knee injury away from completely self-destructing. You put any other quarterback on that team, including Leinart, and had Booty start for USC they would have won. So somehow if Texas beats USC in a nailbiter I cannot argue that calling Texas better is being results oriented, while you can argue calling tOSU wildly overrated for letting Michigan run up 39 and then Florida 41 in a blowout is results oriented garbage? Face it, they had no defense, it just looked that way because they played a bunch of terrible teams. I also guarantee tOSU gets destroyed if they play an SEC or Pac10 team in the NCF

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey -- The Big 10 is 9-6 in bowl games against the SEC in the past 5 years.

Thanks

RedRover · #**158** 10-16-2007, 11:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
. For comparison, Joe Paterno's 74.8% over the course of his career and I don't think anyone would complain about his overall results with the Penn State program

[/ QUOTE ]

51-40 (.560) since 2000
317-83 (.792) before 2000

People loved JoePa when he was playing .800 ball but two crappy years and people were calling for him to retire. If he hadn't posted that 11-1 record in '05 he would be gone.

Arnold_O · #**159** 10-16-2007, 11:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Specific failings? You think that was a fluke? You think that team was going to be even close to USC, Florida, Cal, or LSU? So Michigan getting worked by USC was also a fluke? That Texas team was one VY knee injury away from completely self-destructing. You put any other quarterback on that team, including Leinart, and had Booty start for USC they would have won. So somehow if Texas beats USC in a nailbiter I cannot argue that calling Texas better is being results oriented, while you can argue calling tOSU wildly overrated for letting Michigan run up 39 and then Florida 41 in a blowout is results oriented garbage? Face it, they had no defense, it just looked that way because they played a bunch of terrible teams. I also guarantee tOSU gets destroyed if they play an SEC or Pac10 team in the NCF

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey dipshlt -- The Big 10 is 9-6 in bowl games against the SEC in the past 5 years.

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah!

stop all the ripping on the big ten. OSU was the best team last year, just ask the bookmakers

MyTurn2Raise · #**160** 10-17-2007, 01:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
. For comparison, Joe Paterno's 74.8% over the course of his career and I don't think anyone would complain about his overall results with the Penn State program

[/ QUOTE ]

51-40 (.560) since 2000
317-83 (.792) before 2000

People loved JoePa when he was playing .800 ball but two crappy years and people were calling for him to retire. If he hadn't posted that 11-1 record in '05 he would be gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

it all fell apart that one day v Minnesota in 99(?)

actually, I think it fell apart when they decided to join the Big11Ten