ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox

[vhawk01]

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It sort of seems like you are trying to trap him or something? Yes, that is what he is saying.

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There are a lot of people who visit this forum, but not this sb forum (or who are just not knowledgeable bettors in general) who would pronounce that they feel confident in a bet if they think they're still favored, even if they're laying 10:1. That's what I was trying to ascertain.

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But he isn't "still favored" he is still more than a 10:1 favorite. Maybe I am also dumb, but I would still feel very comfortable with my bet at this point (or the point at which you initially asked) and would not be wishing I could back out. At the very least its really close. I understand the win expectancy figures are for league average teams, and that Boston has an above-average offense, but CLE has an above-average bullpen as well. I really don't think there has been a time since Jurollo offered the bet that he was +EV, although perhaps right after the third home run it was pretty close.

[Arnold_O]

who pitches the 8th for the indians?

[RedRover]

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okay guys, red sox have 2 innings to catch the indians. what are the odds they do it assuming indians don't score in the 8th?

go indians!

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expectancy: 0.976

http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy...mp;scorediff=-4

[craig]

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who pitches the 8th for the indians?

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They showed betancourt warming up. I assume it would be him if the score holds up.

craig

[Jurollo]

this whole bet isnt about +EV, I know i am taking an +EV bet probably long term, but I have a feeling that the Sox will pull this [censored] out tonight

[vhawk01]

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this whole bet isnt about +EV, I know i am taking an +EV bet probably long term, but I have a feeling that the Sox will pull this [censored] out tonight

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Yeah, I figured that and I wasn't making fun of you for making a bad bet. I am just a little confused as to what legend is getting at.

[Suigin406]

fwiw, i wouldn't put 10:1 at this 4-7 point, but at 0-7 with the indians pen, i feel/felt comfortable...just a little uncomfy at the moment [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[sylar]

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It sort of seems like you are trying to trap him or something? Yes, that is what he is saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are a lot of people who visit this forum, but not this sb forum (or who are just not knowledgeable bettors in general) who would pronounce that they feel confident in a bet if they think they're still favored, even if they're laying 10:1. That's what I was trying to ascertain.

[/ QUOTE ]

But he isn't "still favored" he is still more than a 10:1 favorite. Maybe I am also dumb, but I would still feel very comfortable with my bet at this point (or the point at which you initially asked) and would not be wishing I could back out. At the very least its really close. I understand the win expectancy figures are for league average teams, and that Boston has an above-average offense, but CLE has an above-average bullpen as well. I really don't think there has been a time since Jurollo offered the bet that he was +EV, although perhaps right after the third home run it was pretty close.

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ok, maybe i understand what he was asking now. you also need to consider that indians are also batting, and they are not league average hitters either.

[Jurollo]

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who pitches the 8th for the indians?

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They showed betancourt warming up. I assume it would be him if the score holds up.

craig

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prolly betancourt-->joe borowski to finish it out for the indians.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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okay guys, red sox have 2 innings to catch the indians. what are the odds they do it assuming indians don't score in the 8th?

go indians!

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expectancy: 0.976

=0&scorediff=-4]http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy...mp;scorediff=-4

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97.6% ???!! ship it!