flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...

[Fat Nicky]

don't recognize the CO, but from mined stats, he seems nitty, running at 14/10/2 over an 800 hand sample.

button is bertkc. he's a TAG that is capable of doing some crazy stuff by getting aggro in the wrong spots. he seems to playing solid this session though, and we have yet to tangle. i am playing fairly tight. stats are 21/17/4.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $283.75
BB: $200.00
UTG: $91.90
MP: $458.55
CO: $205.00
BTN: $275.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $7.00</font>, BTN calls $7.00, Hero calls $6.00, BB folds

Flop: ($23) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $12.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $40.00</font>, Hero ????

i would 3-bet squeeze often, but the opener had nitty stats.

now what to do on the flop???

[Havok]

I think you should reraise and get the CO out. I think your way ahead of button on the flop. CO won't like the reraise action. Probably fold the best hand. And if your behind in the hand to the button you also have the nut flush draw. I don't see how you can fold here, and calling is too weak. Raise!!!!

[kolotoure]

This is one of the rare spots where I like a call with a combo draw hoping that CO overcalls

[Havok]

interesting. I just ran some possible hands through poker stove. The worst hand thats likely that the button has to me is AK which only leaves you with roughly 35% equity in the pot. Being optimistic is AQ which your even money with. So I'm not sure I might get involved now. And just calling is horrible. I think I might have to change my repsonse to fold. If you had position I might just smooth call to see what villian does on the turn. But oop I think folding isn't such a bad play here. Good post

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
interesting. I just ran some possible hands through poker stove. The worst hand thats likely that the button has to me is AK which only leaves you with roughly 35% equity in the pot. Being optimistic is AQ which your even money with. So I'm not sure I might get involved now. And just calling is horrible. I think I might have to change my repsonse to fold. If you had position I might just smooth call to see what villian does on the turn. But oop I think folding isn't such a bad play here. Good post

[/ QUOTE ]

AK isn't too likely IMO because he probably would have 3-bet that pre-flop. as well as KK and AA. not saying they are totally out of the question, but it's a small %.

figuring out COs range at this point is pretty difficult, even w/his tight stats, because he has just made a pfr and standard c-bet. (it was into 2 players, so I would assume he has at least something a lot of the time)

[nazahl]

definitely not folding.

COs bet is pretty weak on the flop so I think the TAG btn's range is a lot wider than usual in this spot.

not sure whats best on the flop. cold calling kinda sucks cause your implied odds on a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] aren't that great. and I gotta think he'll be checking behind most of his medium strength hands on the turn a lot of the time/charging you to draw with the goods. otoh, I can't see him calling a 3bet w/ a worse hand. I mean he's probably just gonna jam A9 and a set and fold everything else, maybe you get him to call w/ worse spades sometimes which is awesome but not that often imo.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]

not sure whats best on the flop. cold calling kinda sucks cause your implied odds on a aren't that great. and I gotta think he'll be checking behind most of his medium strength hands on the turn a lot of the time/charging you to draw with the goods. otoh, I can't see him calling a 3bet w/ a worse hand. I mean he's probably just gonna jam A9 and a set and fold everything else, maybe you get him to call w/ worse spades sometimes which is awesome but not that often imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty solid analysis, pretty much sums up why this decision is pretty difficult

[orange]

I would probably call/jam if CO shoves.

[kolotoure]

fwiw I think calling and raising are close but folding is gross

[Havok]

I aggree if CO overcalls that gives you the odds to draw. But, being out of position here. You just don't know if Co is going to call a raise and a call here. I don't think I would call here. Also, alot of players might just smooth call with ace king here. I don't think AK always has to reraise, so don't discount that hand. True AA or KK probably would, so those hands seem less likely. My gut thinks it's AK, and a set seems the least likely. I still don't like it OOP though.