absolutely insane 20/40 game

[Buzz]

Howzit – In order to determine whether a raise will be profitable or not, I think we only need to consider the number of opponents who would call the raise, not the amount of money already in the pot or the amount projected to be in the pot at the showdown.

With three opponents who will call the raise,
when Hero scoops, he wins $40*3 = $120.00
when Hero wins 3/4, he wins $160*3/4-$40 = $80.00
(not $120*3/4=$90)
when Hero wins 2/3, he wins $160*2/3-$40 = $66.67
when Hero wins 1/2, he wins $160*1/2-$40 = $40.00
when Hero wins 1/3, he wins $160*1/3-$40 = $13.33
when Hero wins 1/4, he wins $160*1/4-$40 = $0
when Hero wins 1/6, he loses $160*1/6-$40 = -$13.33
when Hero loses, he loses $40.00.

As simulated:<ul type="square">Qs scoops 100%
8s7s6s5s scoop 79.3%, get 3/4 19.8%, get 2/3 0.9%
QhQc scoop 79.7% get half 18.2%, get 1/3 2.1%
2s4s scoop 2.8% get half 94.6%, lose 2.6%
5c5h scoop 79.2%, get half 19.9%, get 1/3 0.9%
8h8d8c7h7d7c6h6d6c get half 79.2, get quarter 19.9%, get sixth 0.9%
9sTs scoop 49.3%, lose 50.7%
5d scoops 25.0% gets half 60.5%, gets third 0.2%, gets quarter 13.7%, gets sixth 0.6%
Qd scoops 25.3%, gets half 5.2%, 1/3 0.5%, loses 69%
Assume all others are not playable. (Hero has to fold).[/list]
Qs: Hero wins $120
8s7s6s5s: Any of these, .793*120+.198*80+.009*66.7=+$111.6
QhQc: Either of these, .797*120+.182*40+.021*13.33 = +$103.2
5c5h: Either of these, .792*120+.199*40+.009*13.33 = +$103.1
5d: .25*120+.605*40+.002*13.33+.137*0-.006*13.33 = +$54.2
9sTs: Either of these .493*120-.507*40 = +$38.9
8h8d8c7h7d7c6h6d6c: Any of these, .792*40-.009*13.33 = +$31.6
2s4s: Either of these, .028*120+.946*40-0.26*40 = +$30.8
Qd: .253*120+.052*40+.005*13.33-.69*40 = +$4.9
Anything else (twenty cards) = -$40.00.

+2.73.......1/44*120….......2.73@....Qs
+10.11.....4/44*111.2.......2.53@.....8s7s6s5s
+4.69.......2/44*103.2.......2.35@….QhQc
+4.69.......2/44*103.1.......2.34@.…5h5c
+1.23.......1/44*54.2..…....1.23@ ...5d
+1.77.......2/44*38.9..…....0.88@ ...9sTs
+6.46.......9/44*31.6....…..0.72@ ...8h8d8c7h7d7c6h6d6c
+1.40.......2/44*30.8.....….0.70@....2s4s
+0.11.......1/44*4.9....…….0.11@....Qd
-18.18......20/44*(-40) ..…………....all others
+15.01 is total

The important thing is to note whether the total is positive or negative. Since the total is positive, a raise would be +e.v.

The total would still be positive with only two opponents, but not as favorable as with three. With one opponent (heads-up) there are other considerations.

Obviously none of us can do the above calculations and tabulation during the playing of a hand. We have to have some way to approximate under game conditions. But that’s another story.

At any rate, with this many outs, even though they’re not all for a scoop, Hero should probably raise on the turn, just as you did.

Buzz

[howzit]

buzz, i really appreciate the equity dissection. it's goign to take a few days to go through all this sh......stuff.

thanks dude. if you run to the series this year and i'm out there, i'll get you a beer or whatever you're drinking.

[TxRedMan]

Standard turn action.

I go nuts on the flop.

[kyleb]

Jam the flop and turn.