TVG's Handicappers...How good are they?

[jafeather]

Before I break out a spreadsheet and start tracking this for a few weeks...I thought I'd see if anyone else around here has done the same.

Basic premise - if you bet the TVG handicappers' picks, what kind of win/loss rate are you going to be looking at?

I'd start by just looking at picks to win, since that's almost all they get into. I may throw in some pick 4s down the road since they love to have their pick 4 tickets (the pick 4s may not represent how they would really bet, though, since the tickets are limited to $50.) Down side to the pick 4s is that a relevant sample size could take ages to compile.

Also, how good is one of their handicappers vs. others? Just from a few days it seems that Simon Bray could make you some money, but Rich or Matt a lot less (sample size admittedly neither realistic nor thoroughly recorded.)

[Bishop22]

I predict they do just slightly better than picking at random, somewhere in the -12 to -15% ROI range. As a serious prop bettor I would bet any amount of money they are worse than -10% ROI. Learn the form or hook-up with HTR if you want to make money at the races, there is no free lunch.

[Kevroc]

I just play exotics like pick 4 and pick 6 pools when they swell up or have big guarantees but..

I listen when Simon Bray or Frank Lyons have something to say. They are knowledgeable bloodline guys.

If they have something to say, I may add one of their longshot breeding selections on my ticket(s).

[LAgambol]

They obviously have a lot of information at their disposal so they usually pick a relatively safe 'standard' line which is usually pretty similar to the advice given by Bob, my buddy worked over at TVG and he said they're obviously not giving the 'big winners' over the air tho

[Kevroc]

[ QUOTE ]
They obviously have a lot of information at their disposal so they usually pick a relatively safe 'standard' line which is usually pretty similar to the advice given by Bob, my buddy worked over at TVG and he said they're obviously not giving the 'big winners' over the air tho

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, its hard to be told that you "must" put a checkmark on EVERY race.

Its near impossible to do well, consistently like that.

But, FWIW I respect the TV capper that places his checkmark next to a selection other than the top two ML choices.

Couple that with some angles to back it up and it makes for an addition to my ticket(s).

Anyone can mail it in and pick ML favorites.. i put more weight on what they actually say then just looking for the checkmarks and betting them blind.