Boxing Weekend of 10/5 - 10/7: Barreria v. Pacquiao

[Tuds75]

The fact Peters loves to hit behind the head and has been warned numerous time in numerous fights give the chance of a possible DQ of Peter. While I'll admit the chance of that happening are slim, but still very real. What about the freak injury aspect. I think when you have guys who are this size fighting a simple slip could lead to a fight ending injury (you mentioned McCline's against Valuez).

These are heavyweights. The majority of them are big punchers. The chance of one of them landing a really damaging punch exists for everyone (expect Chris Byrd who have a hard time injuring a fly if he connected on the fly). McCline is a big guy (6-6 260) and while I believe he is not a big puncher, he can put some real weight behind a punch.

Peter will/should win this fight, but in the chance something freak happens somebody really want to lose $750 just trying to win a quick hundred. Sports betting is littered with bodies of people who figured this game/fight was "sure thing" only to see the big underdog pull it out.

If anyone wants to lay Peters at -750 feel free, but be warned they are starting a trend of betting big faves that will come back to burn them big time, I am can attest to this since I was one of them.

Tuds

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact Peters loves to hit behind the head and has been warned numerous time in numerous fights give the chance of a possible DQ of Peter.


[/ QUOTE ]

What chance do you give this actually happening? One percent?

It's funny because the biggest bet I have ever placed was on Mayweather over Gatti. I said to my brother "Only way he loses is if he punches Gatti while he is down and is DQed". First round he hits Gatti after the referee said "STOP!" and Gatti is hurt! Luckily, the ref just pretended he never said anything.

[ QUOTE ]

What about the freak injury aspect. I think when you have guys who are this size fighting a simple slip could lead to a fight ending injury (you mentioned McCline's against Valuez).


[/ QUOTE ]

McCline is 37, Peter is late 20's. The chances of Peter quitting due to a freak injury are less than 1%.

[ QUOTE ]

These are heavyweights. The majority of them are big punchers. The chance of one of them landing a really damaging punch exists for everyone (expect Chris Byrd who have a hard time injuring a fly if he connected on the fly). McCline is a big guy (6-6 260) and while I believe he is not a big puncher, he can put some real weight behind a punch.


[/ QUOTE ]

You can get 25 to 1 (+2500) on McCline inside the distance. I didn't line shop, so maybe you could find better. So if you are serious about these chances of a freak accident, a DQ, or a KO/TKO, then this is the bet for you.

On 5Dimes you can bet against McCline inside the distance:

McCline wins inside distance +2275
Not McCline inside distance -4550

The market is saying that the actual chance of a McCline stoppage is ~4%. If these 5Dimes lines were considered efficient, it would be 4.13%. Personally, I think it is actually lower. Peter has an incredible chin.

[ QUOTE ]

Peter will/should win this fight, but in the chance something freak happens somebody really want to lose $750 just trying to win a quick hundred. Sports betting is littered with bodies of people who figured this game/fight was "sure thing" only to see the big underdog pull it out.


[/ QUOTE ]

Again, you either think -750 is +EV or it is not.

What I don't understand about your type of thinking is, why aren't you on the other side then? You can already get McCline at +700 on at least one site. Come fight time, you might get an even better price. Why not bet the underdog if this is how you feel?

Also, why not take McCline to win inside the distance at +2500 or better? If you believe:

1. Peter habitually hits behind the head and has a chance of getting DQed
2. with two heavyweights fighting there is always a chance of a freak injury
3. McCline hits hard enough to knock out Peter if he lands a good punch

shouldn't you be betting on McCline to score a stoppage at 25 to 1?

[Tuds75]

Andrew Golota -373
Kevin McBride +343

Total Rounds: 5.5
OVER -112
UNDER +102

Fist off let me say, Yuck. I don't want to watch or think about either of these fighters. Golota is well past his prime and who knows about this guy anymore and Kevin McBride can place his name next to Evander Holyfield and Lennox Lewis as Mike Tyson conquers, that should make you a little sick.

This is Don King fight and he loves Gotola and anybody who have beat his former cash-cow, Mike Tyson. McBride is one of the least talented heavyweights fighting. Kevin McBride is tall and that is end of the positives about him. He is slow with his punches and with his feet. He has no real power, no real sense of how to box, no defense, no chin. He just should not be a boxer. The fact he beat Mike Tyson still boggles my mind. Yes Tyson was old and didn't care and on drugs during the fight and a faded figher. McBride is so bad Mike Tyson should have beaten him and Cicely Tyson would give McBride a good fight. Basically if Goloata can make it to the ring and not implode in the first few rounds he should be able to take care of McBride pretty quickly.

Golata had skills for a heavy, key word had, but that is more then you can say for McBride. McBride will come foward and stand in front of Golota and this is exactly what Goloata wants and loves for a fighter to do. McBride will look to hold, but McBride believes he can can KO Golota. This fight will go about 3 rounds. No way it goes 6, unless each the fighters mutually agree to take naps during rounds 4-7. Both guys will be winging punches looking for an early KO. Look for Golota to connect and finish McBride in 3 or fewer.

Yes this is not a big name fight or a sexy fight, but its all about making money and finding good bets and the UNDER is a good bet.

Tuds

[trixtrix]

[ QUOTE ]
Andrew Golota -373
Kevin McBride +343

Total Rounds: 5.5
OVER -112
UNDER +102

Fist off let me say, Yuck. I don't want to watch or think about either of these fighters. Golota is well past his prime and who knows about this guy anymore and Kevin McBride can place his name next to Evander Holyfield and Lennox Lewis as Mike Tyson conquers, that should make you a little sick.

This is Don King fight and he loves Gotola and anybody who have beat his former cash-cow, Mike Tyson. McBride is one of the least talented heavyweights fighting. Kevin McBride is tall and that is end of the positives about him. He is slow with his punches and with his feet. He has no real power, no real sense of how to box, no defense, no chin. He just should not be a boxer. The fact he beat Mike Tyson still boggles my mind. Yes Tyson was old and didn't care and on drugs during the fight and a faded figher. McBride is so bad Mike Tyson should have beaten him and Cicely Tyson would give McBride a good fight. Basically if Goloata can make it to the ring and not implode in the first few rounds he should be able to take care of McBride pretty quickly.

Golata had skills for a heavy, key word had, but that is more then you can say for McBride. McBride will come foward and stand in front of Golota and this is exactly what Goloata wants and loves for a fighter to do. McBride will look to hold, but McBride believes he can can KO Golota. This fight will go about 3 rounds. No way it goes 6, unless each the fighters mutually agree to take naps during rounds 4-7. Both guys will be winging punches looking for an early KO. Look for Golota to connect and finish McBride in 3 or fewer.

Yes this is not a big name fight or a sexy fight, but its all about making money and finding good bets and the UNDER is a good bet.

Tuds

[/ QUOTE ]

i'll book your bet right now giving you +110 on the under 5.5, bet limit is 500;

edit: i bumped the odds 5 more cents as they're offer +106 on pinny
let me know if there is interest

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact Peters loves to hit behind the head and has been warned numerous time in numerous fights give the chance of a possible DQ of Peter.


[/ QUOTE ]

What chance do you give this actually happening? One percent?

It's funny because the biggest bet I have ever placed was on Mayweather over Gatti. I said to my brother "Only way he loses is if he punches Gatti while he is down and is DQed". First round he hits Gatti after the referee said "STOP!" and Gatti is hurt! Luckily, the ref just pretended he never said anything.

[ QUOTE ]

What about the freak injury aspect. I think when you have guys who are this size fighting a simple slip could lead to a fight ending injury (you mentioned McCline's against Valuez).


[/ QUOTE ]

McCline is 37, Peter is late 20's. The chances of Peter quitting due to a freak injury are less than 1%.

[ QUOTE ]

These are heavyweights. The majority of them are big punchers. The chance of one of them landing a really damaging punch exists for everyone (expect Chris Byrd who have a hard time injuring a fly if he connected on the fly). McCline is a big guy (6-6 260) and while I believe he is not a big puncher, he can put some real weight behind a punch.


[/ QUOTE ]

You can get 25 to 1 (+2500) on McCline inside the distance. I didn't line shop, so maybe you could find better. So if you are serious about these chances of a freak accident, a DQ, or a KO/TKO, then this is the bet for you.

On 5Dimes you can bet against McCline inside the distance:

McCline wins inside distance +2275
Not McCline inside distance -4550

The market is saying that the actual chance of a McCline stoppage is ~4%. If these 5Dimes lines were considered efficient, it would be 4.13%. Personally, I think it is actually lower. Peter has an incredible chin.

[ QUOTE ]

Peter will/should win this fight, but in the chance something freak happens somebody really want to lose $750 just trying to win a quick hundred. Sports betting is littered with bodies of people who figured this game/fight was "sure thing" only to see the big underdog pull it out.


[/ QUOTE ]

Again, you either think -750 is +EV or it is not.

What I don't understand about your type of thinking is, why aren't you on the other side then? You can already get McCline at +700 on at least one site. Come fight time, you might get an even better price. Why not bet the underdog if this is how you feel?

Also, why not take McCline to win inside the distance at +2500 or better? If you believe:

1. Peter habitually hits behind the head and has a chance of getting DQed
2. with two heavyweights fighting there is always a chance of a freak injury
3. McCline hits hard enough to knock out Peter if he lands a good punch

shouldn't you be betting on McCline to score a stoppage at 25 to 1?

[/ QUOTE ]


The juice ate Tuds' ability to bet on Sam Peter. Else he should lay a nice $30 on peter...that's what betting tells him to do. Not bet the other side.

[Tuds75]

The reason I don't bet on McCline is because I don't like throwing money away. I hate McCline and I think he will be outclassed in this fight, but I can find better +700 fighter bets to take (Nino Donaire against Vic Darchinyian which I called, just to name one).

I don't find a whole lot of value in betting either fighter straight up. So why would I bet either?

But I have to admit McCline winning inside the distance at 22-1 is a tempting bet. Those are very high and freak stuff happen. Really McCline doesn't need one punch to finish Peter because I don't see that happening, McCline just needs one punch on the temple or ear that shakes Peter up enough so McCline and pounce a wounded Peter and thus getting a ref stop. If McCline KO'ed Peter down, Peter would get 10 seconds to regroup which will help him recover.

Anyway its a moot point because I don't really see that happening.

Enjoy the fights.
Tuds

[Parlay Slow]

Tuds,

I think you'll find your posts will get more respect if you base your analysis on mathematics and probability rather than platitudes.

[Tuds75]

Golata KO'ed McBride in the 6th at 2:42. So I missed the under by 73 seconds. Oh well those things happen.

Tuds

[dankhank]

[ QUOTE ]
Tuds,

I think you'll find your posts will get more respect if you base your analysis on mathematics and probability rather than platitudes.

[/ QUOTE ]

you have got to be [censored] kidding.

he shouldn't have to expend any energy explaining why he doesn't want to bet on a -750 favorite. your notion that evaluating the EV of a -750 favorite is a math question rather than a boxing knowledge question is really stupid. didn't you learn anything about betting huge moneyline favorites after your retarded chess picks last year?

[Parlay Slow]

It's a boxing knowledge question that translates into a math question. How is that even a debate?