Simple turn spot

[Schneids]

Baffa: posts small blind $100
AlexSem: posts big blind $200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PapaWarbucks [Qs 9c]
doulas12: folds
iwanturmoney: folds
Quackers: folds
PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $400
Baffa: folds
AlexSem: raises $200 to $600
PapaWarbucks: calls $200
*** FLOP *** [7d Qd 9d]
AlexSem: bets $200
PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $400
AlexSem: calls $200
*** TURN *** [7d Qd 9d] [6d]
AlexSem: checks
PapaWarbucks: ???????????


I think you either check and call a river bet, or bet/fold.

Thoughts? Should it matter that Alex never believes I have anything?

[andyfox]

I prefer check and call a river bet. Checking the turn might induce a river bluff (or perceived value bet by a hand you can beat) and eliminates the fold to a check-raise on the turn which might deprive you of a full house and big payoff on the river.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer check and call a river bet. Checking the turn might induce a river bluff (or perceived value bet by a hand you can beat) and eliminates the fold to a check-raise on the turn which might deprive you of a full house and big payoff on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

checking allows him a free draw to chop though if he's lacking a diamond. my two pair is the nuts if he has no diamond.

[Trencherman]

Schneids,

You seem to be implying that Hero is unlikely to win 2 big bets on the river after filling up; hence, bet/fold > bet/call. Is this an accurate assessment of your preference for bet/fold > bet/call?

[TxRedMan]

I check and call a river bet.

Seems like an easy decision. If you bet and he raises, you're folding, so why would you take that line when you can get to showdown w/ a hand that has value + 4 outs to fill for the same price, plus the times you fill and he has a big hand and you win 2 BB's on the river. Not to mention the times he bets the river w/ a lesser hand.

The above is > than the times when you chop a fifth diamond on the river.

I think the real question is whether or not you bet the river if checked to again, and what your action is if he raises.

[mike l.]

bet-fold would be a bad line against great players. bet-call, then check-fold sounds good, but you lose an extra bet when beat. if you bet the turn and he calls you should what? check-call?

it all adds up to checking and then calling the river being the smartest play. the weird spot is when he checks the river to you again. would he ever c/r there?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
it all adds up to checking and then calling the river being the smartest play. the weird spot is when he checks the river to you again. would he ever c/r there?

[/ QUOTE ]

Losing 1/2 the pot 20% of the time is a pretty big deal here and requires an opponent who would bluff with a pretty high frequency / checkraise a high number of diamonds that he wouldn't 3bet on the flop. The preflop+flop doesn't lead me to believe that he'll have Ad too often here so I think a bet is better. When checkraised, given the fact that you have 4 outs and your opponent will be pure bluffing and may give up sometimes, I'd call and fold to a river bet UI.

The fact that Alex never believes Schneids has anything probably compounds this since I'd guess he's somewhat more likely to check-call with hands that Q9 crushes here, but I'm not sure how it effects his likelihood to checkraise bluff/checkraise a more liberal range of flushes.

Anyway, I'd betcall and fold the river, like I said, mostly because of how much that chopdraw is worth (~.55BB or so) and the combo of implied odds+stopping bluffs. If forced to chose between bet/fold (getting 8.5:1, I think) and check-behind and call, I suppose I'd tend to check behind and call though. I just wouldn't opt to make that play in this spot without knowing a lot more about how Alexsem tends to play the flop with a big diamond+overs or how he plays the turn with hands like 8x8d.

Rob

[PokerBob]

i check behind here and call any river bet.

[yellowsub]

bet the turn , would he really chekc a good diamond to u on 4th?

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

It seems to me that, in addition to having chop outs, he could also very easily have straight outs if behind, as I think hands like JT or KJ will tend to make a loose peel on this flop even without having any diamonds. So that's definitely an argument for betting.

I also agree with Entity that this is really a choice between check-behind/calling and bet/calling/deciding. Bet/folding seems incorrect since you almost have the odds to draw to a 4-outer with an extra bet or two likely to go in on the river -- he only needs to be giving up on bluffs a small % of the time to make a call profitable. And if he never gives up on bluffs, well then just bet the turn and calldown.

BTW, I don't think he should be check-raising for value all that often, but that depends on a lot of things.