UFC Ultimate Fight Night

[moranimal]

I like the picks, except I like Rashad and Koscheck, even at those prices. I think Koscheck is a great, great talent, and that Rashad will outwork Hogar.

Whether it's those guys or Matt Hughes, I don't think you give the wrestlers enough love, Performify.

I'll be rooting for Bonnar - great guy, great fighter.

[jmillerdls]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the picks, except I like Rashad and Koscheck, even at those prices. I think Koscheck is a great, great talent, and that Rashad will outwork Hogar.

Whether it's those guys or Matt Hughes, I don't think you give the wrestlers enough love, Performify.

I'll be rooting for Bonnar - great guy, great fighter.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree on Kosch...his last fight was a fluke. He is capable of rolling over most opponents with his natural ability, but he has put a lot of work in since the show.

I also agree on Rashad. I've seen Hogar fight from his back (the Forest Griffin fight), and it was ugly. No doubt Rashad can take him down. If, however, he can't...then Sammy can win.

I also take Burkman as I have seen 3 of his fights, and he's been pretty dominant in all of them...so hard for me to not take him at this point.

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
Whether it's those guys or Matt Hughes, I don't think you give the wrestlers enough love, Performify.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're definately right - I very much believe that straight (but extremly strong) wrestlers with limited submission skills and limited standup skills are very very overvalued in the UFC. The days of Dan Sevren, Mark Coleman, and Don Frye are long over. Even Couture falls in this category now.

i have a wrestling background myself, and there's much love for the guys that started out that way, but - those like Koschek is a perfect example - who are 100% wrestling with no submissions and no standup aren't going to go far in today's UFC in my opinion. Ground and pound just won't get it done anymore.

[swope]

[ QUOTE ]
I very much believe that straight (but extremly strong) wrestlers with limited submission skills and limited standup skills are very very overvalued in the UFC. The days of Dan Sevren, Mark Coleman, and Don Frye are long over. Even Couture falls in this category now.

i have a wrestling background myself, and there's much love for the guys that started out that way, but - those like Koschek is a perfect example - who are 100% wrestling with no submissions and no standup aren't going to go far in today's UFC in my opinion. Ground and pound just won't get it done anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

kos is fairly one dimentional, but if he was on the stock market, i would invest.

if i had a magic wand, i would send kos to BTT or chute boxe for about 5 years, then let him dominate a few ADCC's, *then* put him back in the UFC.

[Performify]

Lines showing some decent movement. Original line followed by new line followed by any thoughts from the move:

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Luke Cummo vs Jason von Flue</u>
131 Luke Cummo -208
132 Jason von Flue +188

[/ QUOTE ]
131 Luke Cummo -220
132 Jason von Flue +200

Stronger recommendation on JVF. He definately has a &gt; 33% chance of winning this fight. Luke looked very out of shape (not nearly as cut as he was last time we saw him) at weighin.

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Brad Imes vs Dan Christianson</u>
133 Brad Imes -204
134 Dan Christianson +184

[/ QUOTE ]
133 Brad Imes -186
134 Dan Christianson +176

After watching weigh-in I'll change this prediction to Brad by TKO in the second round.
Surprised to see this move for us, good value for someone late to the party.

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Chris Leben vs Luigi Fioravanti</u>
135 Chris Leben -553
136 Luigi Fioravanti +503

[/ QUOTE ]
135 Chris Leben -600
136 Luigi Fioravanti +540

Still like Leben but obviously not as much +EV. Wait for it to fall back to -550 range.

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Josh Koscheck vs Ansar Chalangov</u>
137 Josh Koscheck -273
138 Ansar Chalangov +253

[/ QUOTE ]
No change

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Josh Burkman vs Jon Fitch </u>
139 Josh Burkman -243
140 Jon Fitch +223

[/ QUOTE ]
139 Josh Burkman -228
140 Jon Fitch +208

Hopefully you got in before it got bet down. Biggest move, and its our direction (if you're already on it).
if Burkman's stock continues to falls, I may consider a no-risk arbitrage here.

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Trevor Prangley vs Chael Sonnen</u>
141 Trevor Prangley -314
142 Chael Sonnen +284

[/ QUOTE ]
141 Trevor Prangley -304
142 Chael Sonnen +274

Prangley looked like a monster at weigh-in. Definately happy to be on that side. Slight move our direction on the line if you're late.

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Stephan Bonnar vs Keith Jardine</u>
143 Stephan Bonnar -333
144 Keith Jardine +303

[/ QUOTE ]
143 Stephan Bonnar -342
144 Keith Jardine +312

Same reco - line moving away slightly...

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Joe Stevenson vs Josh Neer </u>
145 Joe Stevenson -424
146 Josh Neer +384

[/ QUOTE ]
145 Joe Stevenson -420
146 Josh Neer +380

No significant movement. Still a weak reco only.

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Rashad Evans vs Sam Hoger </u>
147 Rashad Evans -194
148 Sam Hoger +181

[/ QUOTE ]
No change in line. Confidence factor has increased seeing weigh-in though. Rashad not as cut as he was last time we saw him either.

[Performify]

Sherdog has their pics updated, with solid writeups:

http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles.asp?n_id=4231

and

http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles.asp?n_id=4235

(remember to use the "next page" at the bottom - each article is five pages)

Their pics:

[ QUOTE ]

Prangley def. Sonnen decision 3R
Chalangov def. Koscheck TKO R2
Imes def. Christison TKO R1
Burkman def. Fitch decision 3R
Von Flue def. Cummo decision 3R
Leben def. Fioravanti KO R1
Neer def. Stevenson decision 3R
Hoger def. Evans submission R3
Bonnar def. Jardine TKO R1


[/ QUOTE ]

They're calling Neer in a big upset because they think the fight will be closer than expected, which fits with my weak recommendation only.

They have Burkman over Fitch, which is against my pick - but they call it as the closest fight of the night, and in that case we're certainly on the right side of the underdog as they're not picking for gambling purposes. Not to mention with the favorable movement on our side in that line if you locked with me and want to change now you're not far from a valueable arbitrage if the line continues to drop.

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
if i had a magic wand, i would send kos to BTT or chute boxe for about 5 years, then let him dominate a few ADCC's, *then* put him back in the UFC.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed completely. Koscheck joining AKA (as a solid striking school) should much improve his MMA game but its not going to be enough, yet...

And re: the stock market comment, you've certainly got your opportunity to invest.
However, be forewarned i see a crash in your stock's immediate future [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[jmillerdls]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if i had a magic wand, i would send kos to BTT or chute boxe for about 5 years, then let him dominate a few ADCC's, *then* put him back in the UFC.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed completely. Koscheck joining AKA (as a solid striking school) should much improve his MMA game but its not going to be enough, yet...

And re: the stock market comment, you've certainly got your opportunity to invest.
However, be forewarned i see a crash in your stock's immediate future [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

While, i think a majority of what you have said is true (Frye, Coleman, Severn)...I think its somewhat limited. These guys can be extremely successful against non-premium opponents...and the guys that Rashad, and Kosch are fighting...are not premium fighters.

At the top of the food-chain, you cannot be one dimensional, but you can get pretty far being such, as long as the match-ups are good. However, Kosch is world-class at something, and if he is able to get even moderate skills in other areas, that's all he needs to beat up most opponents. Rashad on the other hand is just average at everything...if the UFC could find real heavyweights, he wouldn't have won TUF2.

Now, Matt Hughes isn't necessarily world-class at anything, but his skill set is perfect for fighting in a cage. He can take anyone down, and he can hold them down. He's mastered it...no one has done it as long, and as good as he has. He also happens to have very good submissions. He only fights premium opponents at this point in his career, so he doesn't get a shot to show off his striking or submissions too much, but I gaurantee he could beat a majority of the MMA world in those two categories...but against premium opponents, he sticks with what he does best. He uses his very good submission ability to avoid submissions for the most part (which is something many wrestlers are learning).

Wrestlers can be very difficult to beat when one-dimensional...they can be champions if they can add something else...even if that "something else" is only very good conditioning, which Matt Hughes definately has.

[LegallyBlind]

why did pinny take 6 of the fights off the books as of 6:30 pm EST? Do you think they are putting them back up???

[slickpoppa]

damn i really wanted hoger to finish off that kimura