(Turn/)River bet size

[poincaraux]

The plan on the turn was to set things up so that he'd have a PSB left on the river. Then, I decided to make a "suspicious" river bet instead, thinking it'd have a greater chance of getting called.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $31.95
BB: $118.65
UTG: $76.75
CO: $47.10
Hero (BTN): $52.80

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain has been on the wrong of several bad beats recently. All by the same guy. He's steaming a bit, but not at me. He doesn't seem great, but thinks he's good. So, he's a thinking player, if not a great one.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

Flop: ($4.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, SB calls $3.00

Turn: ($10.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.00</font>, SB calls $6.00

River: ($22.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $13.00</font> (note that he has ~$20, 1PSB, left in his stack)

[Perk76]

Flop $3.50 I like 3/4 flop bets especially on drawy boards.
Turn $8.00
River $18.45 &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; $27.50 pot

[Milky]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop $3.50 I like 3/4 flop bets especially on drawy boards.
Turn $8.00
River $18.45 &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; $27.50 pot

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this line much better. Makes it easier to get all the money in as well as protect your hand.

[AZplaya]

I'd rather get more in on the turn because a fd is a pretty big part of his range, he's folding the river w/o an ace. If he has an ace he's calling a big bet on the turn, so might as well get more money in while he's still chasing.

[Jamougha]

There's almost never a difference between his calling frequency on the river for different bet sizes; he calls if he has an A or better and folds otherwise. You must shove the river. I also bet more on the turn.

[Spurious]

I'd say pot/pot/shove would work in this particular situation. It looks like villain got a FD, because if he had an Ace he would have shoved the turn, or at least raised the flop. I think he's steaming a lot, therefore he'd chase his draw and would have tried to get it in with some kind of ace on the flop or the turn.

[poincaraux]

So, OK, I'd love to get more money in too. It seems to me that, if he has a flush draw, it's probably not a combo draw. Do people really call a full PSB on the turn with a bare flush draw there?

Related question: if I'm in his place, should *I* call with a flush draw there? If I'm him, I have a hard time calling a big bet there because I don't know that I'll get paid off 100% of the time.

Another related question: it seems like this guy won't be bluffing much. So, if the stacks are a little bigger and I pot the turn, do I fold every time he open-shoves the river? FWIW, I *do* fold there. It's one of those spots that seems a little leaky to me, but I need a lot of history before I'll believe someone's trying to exploit a leak like that.

[z28dreams]

[ QUOTE ]
There's almost never a difference between his calling frequency on the river for different bet sizes; he calls if he has an A or better and folds otherwise. You must shove the river. I also bet more on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to post this exact thought. There's no reason to bet smaller - he's going to fold anything but an ace here to a decent sized bet. Shove it in.

[poincaraux]

So, he had QQ, timed down, used part of his time bank and then called the river.

I don't know exactly what to make of his range, though. If he's calling with QQ, he's probably calling here with at least JJ, and then whatever aces he shows up with (AK, AQ, AJ?).

There are 12 combos of QQ and 12 combos of JJ. There are 3 combos of AK, 4 combos of AQ and 4 combos of AJ.

So which hands should I be betting towards? I'd expect him to raise aces earlier in the hand, but I'd also expect him to pop QQ.

I had a really tough time putting him on a range here. Especially because, since he'd been getting bad-beaten up recently, I thought he'd be super-likely to raise aces (or, I suppose, sets) earlier. And he's not calling a missed flush draw.

So ... what's his range here, and what do people think about my questions about playing from his perspective?