hidden opportunity?

[willie24]

AP 15k rebuy ($30), rebuy period is over. about 100 left, 27 paid.

relevant stacks:
hero 5400
mp2 4135
mp3 11780

big blind= t200. no antes.

hero open raises to 600 in utg+1 with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
called by mp2 and mp3. all others fold.

relevant reads: mp2 has been pushing some limped/unraised pots. seems to have an understanding of fold equity in combo with pot odds. looks like pp to me, but not sure.
mp3 has been playing "big stack" poker. could be pocket pair. could be big ace. could be prospecting for pussies.

flop (2100): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

hero checks, planning to fold. check, check.
hero now suspects mp2 is willing to give up. mp3 is a question mark.

turn (2100): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

hero bets 1200. mp2 folds, mp3 calls.

river (4500): 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

hero checks planning to fold, as every pp beats him, (in addition to anything better)

but...mp3 pushes. hero has 3600 remaining.
thoughts?

[Dunkman]

I think the PF raise is not good, and neither is the turn bet (turn bet has very little FE over hands better than yours.) I'd fold the river too I think, I mean hell he could be bluffing with better hands than yours. Are we hoping he has precisely KQ, maybe like KdQx? I just don't think we're good often enough on the river. The main part of this hand is that you just don't have enough chips PF to be splashing around with 66 in EP.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the PF raise is not good

[/ QUOTE ]
you might be right. i don't think it's terrible though. table is moderately tight (despite the action i ended up getting.)

[ QUOTE ]
and neither is the turn bet (turn bet has very little FE over hands better than yours.)

[/ QUOTE ]

well, partly true, but i definitely want hands i am ahead of to fold. this is a bluff, but it is also an attempt to win when i am winning. i can win when no one has anything, i can win when the others fold mediocre hands - like medium diamonds bigger than mine, straight draws, jacks, pps without diamonds etc. the problem with checking here is that it is giving up. if i check, i will very rarely win, even when i have the best hand or best draw, because i can't call any turn bet. based on the action so far, i think there is enough value in this bluff to give it a shot.



[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold the river too I think, I mean hell he could be bluffing with better hands than yours. Are we hoping he has precisely KQ, maybe like KdQx? I just don't think we're good often enough on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, i was ready to give up when i checked. but the push is strange...because villain would probably check behind with any mediocre hand that beats me. does he have a flush? or did he make a set of 5s or a straight with 22? certainly possible...but it is very likely a big hand or complete air. am i getting pot odds to try and pick off a bluff i can beat here?

[levAA]

1.) i don't think the preflop raise with a medium or low PP on a full table in early position makes much sense. you will be called too often to steal the blinds and will face overcards on the flop nearly everytime with very hard decisions to make.

2.) the flop looks good for you, as it is extremly scary. i think you missed here a good chance to take it down. why not bet the flop representing a big ace which would be a comprehensible move.

3.) i think after checking the flop your chances to take it down are gone. i'd just check/fold this. remember you raised in early position and got two callers, what did you them expect to have. any PP beats you, any A beats you any connector including a J beats you. cut your losses.

[helter skelter]

[ QUOTE ]

yes, i was ready to give up when i checked. but the push is strange...because villain would probably check behind with any mediocre hand that beats me. does he have a flush? or did he make a set of 5s or a straight with 22? certainly possible...but it is very likely a big hand or complete air. am i getting pot odds to try and pick off a bluff i can beat here?

[/ QUOTE ]

As Dunkman pointed out, I think there are very few hands that he can be on a pure bluff with so the pot odds would have to be huge and they aren't.

[BagOfCoins]

The preflop raise is unusual, but in the right situation it can be ok.

I don't like the turn bet because it screams weakness at this level. You aren't representing the flush because you didn't bet the flop, and few $30 tournament players will be convinced you were planning to checkraise.

I can imagine MP3 calling you with an ace, a jack, a flush, or a big diamond.

I can also imagine him putting you allin when you check the river with any of those hands.

The pot is what, t3900? As played, I would fold the river. 66 just too weak to call a pot-sized bet allin hoping that your opponent is bluffing a lone ace and a kicker that isn't A or J.

[earck]

I agree with Dunkman. Call the flop (maybe even fold, but I think your M is big enough to call). Raising is a pretty big mistake here I think. You do not want to be called here, being in such early position there are so many people behind you to act, if you get called the only thing you can hope for is to flop a set otherwise you will likely have to check/fold; or worse you see a small raise and are forced to call and then when you miss the flop you have to check/fold losing a lot of chips with a weak hand.

As played, I am making a continuation bet at that flop, there is a good chance you can take it down, even a fairly strong will fold here.

[willie24]

this is about the most boring set of responses i could imagine.

yes the preflop raise is borderline, but it's not the point of the post. it might cost me 23 chips on average, or it might gain me 12 chips, i don't know. don't really care.

i'm confident my turn bet was profitable given my reads...also not very interesting. (flop continuation bet that some advocate is certainly wrong in my opinion, for reasons that seem obvious to me)

the point of the post is that i actually had autofold selected on the river for a brief second, and unclicked it (only to hide it from the other players)...but villains bet actually persuaded me to call for all my chips! this is struck me as one of the rarest poker plays i have ever made. oh well, to each his own.

[MorsifiedZombie]

Curious as to what kind of responses you were looking for? I guess you want someone to tell you what a brilliant move you made by calling the all in bet.

I agree with most of the posts. It strikes me the spot you found yourself in on the river is a product of poor play.

I think of HOH, where he describes Harrington's philosophy of making decisions for yourself as easy as possible. It seems your decisions on:

Raising preflop from EP
Not C betting the flop...and if u don't cbet...not check/folding...

Put you in a position where you had to make this decision.

I take it the villain was on a bluff and you took down the pot...but a little betting earlier in the hand would clarify your position and let you know a little better where you stood.

Why isn't a c-bet a good idea here?

Thinking like yours is what makes overbetting a good hand all in on the river a +EV move.

[andnow]

As played, I don't see how you can call after the river here.

Everything got there, and most likely he has you beat.

I'm guessing you're being results oriented and you made a call, and he had [censored], and now you just want to post something brilliant or want someone to say a call would be a brilliant play/read.

Because it seems to me routine fold there at the river.