Why are you letting me have this pot??

[Casper05]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<font color="blue">MP is 35/16/2
CO is 22/15/4
I'm new to the table, so no reads...stats are datamined.</font>

SB: $16.45
BB: $67.55
UTG: $123.70
MP: $111.65
CO: $129.60
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $381.80</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $3.50</font>, CO calls $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($12) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $8.00</font>, CO calls $8.00, Hero calls $8.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($36) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
MP checks, CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $36.00</font>, MP folds, CO calls $36.00

<font color="black">River:</font> ($108) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $108.00</font>

[Josem]

if villain is folding to a pot-sized bet on the river, i think villain is also folding to a half-pot-sized bet.


save yourself $50 when you get called by betting only $50-$60 on the river.


CO's possible hands:
Kx, 88, JJ, 55 - unlikely to fold at all (maybe fold Kx to a big bet if you're lucky)
missed flush draw - folding to any bet
99-AA - folding to a half pot sized bet
8x - might call a small bet, but called a pot sized bet on the turn, so i think this is unlikely
other stuff - folding to any bet

[carnivalhobo]

you are repping pretty much exactly 88, thats a problem generally

[terp]

[ QUOTE ]
if villain is folding to a pot-sized bet on the river, i think villain is also folding to a half-pot-sized bet.


save yourself $50 when you get called by betting only $50-$60 on the river.


CO's possible hands:
Kx, 88, JJ, 55 - unlikely to fold at all (maybe fold Kx to a big bet if you're lucky)
missed flush draw - folding to any bet
99-AA - folding to a half pot sized bet
8x - might call a small bet, but called a pot sized bet on the turn, so i think this is unlikely
other stuff - folding to any bet

[/ QUOTE ]

lol so he can have 55 but not 66 or 77 or 88?

edit: i agree with hobo btw

[Josem]

[ QUOTE ]
lol so he can have 55 but not 66 or 77 or 88?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't what this has to do with my comment.

(incidentally, I think he has 22-77 here almost never)

[cakewalk]

perfect spot to squeeze preflop IMO.

squeeze the flop [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

i wouldn't bet the turn here..certainly wouldnt shove the river.

if i'm raising i like raising the flop.

definitely squeeze pf unless you have an absolutely dreadful image

[terp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol so he can have 55 but not 66 or 77 or 88?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't what this has to do with my comment.

(incidentally, I think he has 22-77 here almost never)

[/ QUOTE ]

oh ok, i see that you just meant if he had 55 *somehow*, he's never folding it.

[reup]

no i think he can just call on the flop with a K or have chosen not to three bet JJ for some reason in villain's mind. i like the turn bet size, it looks solid with the river bet, nh.

[Josem]

[ QUOTE ]
oh ok, i see that you just meant if he had 55 *somehow*, he's never folding it.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes.... i was trying (perhaps communicating it poorly) to go through an ATC range and looking at what a river bluff makes fold.

[SkyyCaptain]

I'm not sure what he can have here that folds. His VPIP is 22 which (I'm not a poker-tracker junkie so correct me if I'm wrong) means he doesn't like to get it in that often, and he usually has decent hands when he does. That turn call says to me that you probably can't fold him out unless he's at the very bottom of his range.