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Old 11-17-2007, 12:58 PM
gulon gulon is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 264
Default ($27 STT Satellite): SNGWIZ EqP% Math

Using SNGWIZ with a custom payout structure, I was reviewing push/folds for a STT satellite.

This hand was interesting to me because although K8o is a small-small favorite to win over ATC, I wanted to prove to myself that the equity you give up when you lose is far greater than the equity you gain when you double-up.

However, I became more interested in the calculation of EqP% because my math didn't match SNGWIZ's math. Can someone check me?


Pokerstars EPT PCA Step 2 $27 (75/150)

BTN 4705
SB 6705 (range: 100% open/ 100% call)
BB 2090 (Hero)

Hero is BB with [K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] (21.6% EQ)
SB posts 75. Hero posts 150.
Preflop: 1 fold. SB raises to 1000. Hero re-raises all-in to 2090.

~~~

For each payout, I used the equivalent in buyin$ and used that as the %payout in the custom tourney structure. I imagine some will say that I should have had only 2-payouts at 50%/50% but I wanted to see the equivalent $ I am playing with in each hand.

1st = $82 (0.36)
2nd = $82 (0.36)
3rd = $27 (0.12)
4th = $27 (0.12)
5th = $7.50 (0.03)

~~~

SNGWIZ Analysis Summary
EqP%: 20.76 EqF: 21.06 Diff: -.30

Analysis Details
If Hero pushes = 0 fold EQ
If Hero pushes/lose = 0 EQ
If Hero pushes/wins = 27.5 EQ
Hero Push/Win% = 56%

Net EqP% = 0.56(0.275) = 0.154

Therefore, I expected EqP%=15.4 but the Summary has it as 20.76.

So where did I screw up the math?
Also, was my tourney structure correct?
Also, reraising gives up too much equity?
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