I have a problem folding sets--44 flop fold

[Paul Thomson]

I think you've gotta call. He could be doing this with the nut flush draw.

[Megenoita]

By call, then, you mean push? And what nut flush draw? And why would a flush draw not push after my raise to get more FE? Why would it small raise? It "knows" I'm calling with whatever I raised.

[Paul Thomson]

i thought villian was button.

[Big_Jim]

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Against most guys, I just push the flop initially.

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Flop: ($69)

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Hero ($1007.55)

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Uhm....

I don't mind this fold, but I would go broke, because I never fold sets.

I think that I would have to just call though, because I think even an idiot can get away from top two when you 4-bet here.

If a scare card comes, you might get to showdown cheap, or you might be able to get away from your hand.

[Megenoita]

Two things Big Jim. One, idiots don't fold top 2. And I doubt most tags would, either. They'd put me on AA/KK, and with all that money in, they put the rest in. Two, that you don't fold sets, ever, isn't good reasoning for me to put all my money in. The question is if in this situation, with this villain, putting it in is +EV.

[Big_Jim]

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The question is if in this situation, with this villain, putting it in is +EV.

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OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Thanks for explaining that.

[Megenoita]

No prob, and now that I have, have you anything constructive? Don't fold sets, ever? Is that about it?

[GLmaestro]

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Two, that you don't fold sets, ever, isn't good reasoning for me to put all my money in.

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Honestly dude, this is enough reasoning. Also I can promise you that you're gonna see AA/KK often enough in this spot, even against tight 2p2ers.

[mikechops]

Board: 4d 5h 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.4222 % 52.49% 00.93% { 4c4h }
Hand 2: 46.5778 % 45.65% 00.93% { 77-55, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah6h, Ah3h, Ah2h, 9h8h, 86s, 75s }

If you decide to play for stacks and he calls with NFDs, over sets, top two and combo draws you are ahead. Throw in AA/KK some of the time and it gets better.

I can't see folding a set for 150BB.

Edit... He's short. No way can I fold.... Edit again... misread it, villain is SB.. still not folding, but it's closer.

[jrbick]

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Also I can promise you that you're gonna see AA/KK often enough in this spot, even against tight 2p2ers.

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In a 3 handed pot, OOP, I doubt that this guy is going to resort to FPS w/ a big pair like that. You guys are crazy to think that he plays the flop this way w/ a mere KK, AA given OP's pfr range/flop action. SB is CLEARLY trying to get the rest of his money in here w/ the nuts and/or top/middle set.

jrbick