KK facing pot sized river bet (PS $162)

[ASPoker8]

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poker is not about having easy decisions, its about making the most Ev+ decision.

I.E. There is a much greater chance JTs calls a river bet if you check behind (also theres no likely draw in villains range), By betting the turn almost all worse hands fold and better hands call.

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I think the problem with that is a lot of the time you'd bet that turn with air to rep the Ace, and hope hands like J10 Q10 78s fold. By checking behind you're basically telling your opp. you either hit the Ace, have a pair JJ-KK, or are just completely giving up on the hand. It is a big mistake in many tourney players games to not bet scare cards on the turn when you have a hand that is likely still best but wasn't improved by the card in question.

In other words, the player in the sb would definitely expect you to fire a 2nd barrel on the turn when the A hits, but if you only do it when you either hit the Ace or have nothing, you become pretty exploitable and predictable. Not to say checking behind on the turn is a bad play, but a bet should be considered at least sometimes here, and you do often avoid being bluffed on the river as gobbo said as well.

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AGame, you're assuming a random player is capable of handreading and basically some relatively solid thinking

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Yea I guess that's true, and maybe I'm thinking too much like a cash gm player and not a tourney player. (I think someone like cts would agree with me here and maybe not JohnnyBax) And as I said, checking behind is fine and probably a default line, but I think a bet on the turn can certainly be rationalized and would highly consider against a thinking player.

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I agree 100%, but its important to know that the average tournament random (and even a large chunk of the tournament regulars) dont think at this level

[PBFan]

fold.

[TheEye]

fold, he would have bet turn first if he wanted to represent A and bluff you off.

[Hattifnatt]

I like the turn check and think river is close, wouldnt mind a call.

[MLG]

he'd have to be good enough to turn hands like 99 into a bluff to even consider calling here. Im certainly not giving a random credit for that.

[bluesbassman]

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Does anyone bluff the turn here (in order to avoid being bluffed on the river)?

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I like this line. Many villains are going to auto-call a continuation bet on that T-high flop, figuring you missed with AK-AJ, etc. When the A comes on the turn, fire a bet an amount you would be willing to call on the river. If the villain raises or pots the river, you know you are beat.

As played, since the turn was checked (which is also okay), I don't see how you can call that river bet.

[Requin]

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Does anyone bluff the turn here (in order to avoid being bluffed on the river)?

[/ QUOTE ]You mean blockbet for cheaper showdown? I think a stupid blockbet like 1/3 pot would be ok on the turn

[zizazziza]

u have enough of a stack that i fold.
i dont think you are good enough here 33% of the time.

[JohnnyBax]

I don't know how I got brought into this, but I check the turn and fold the river.


Bax

[pdjplano]

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I don't know how I got brought into this, but I check the turn and fold the river.


Bax

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is there a bet size on the river that you would call to pick off a bluff / thin value bet with a pair < KK? obviously for a min-bet you'd call right? 1/2 pot? 3/4?

what heuristic do you use to determine hand strength at each step in a line such as the above?