AA turn spot

[knockonwood]

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please c/r the turn.. what does he have that beats you here?? 77/88? He won't show up w/ a 2 ever here and he rarely has 88/77 here because most 7.3PFRs won't raise 88/77 in UTG+2.

my guess is TT+ like 95%+ heavily weighted to KK/AA

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Acctually I have played c/r turn but I think its mistake and better would be bet/call turn.

He makes to hot action at PF and he dont cap PF so its not so probbaly AA/KK/QQ. I guest it could be FD but not sure.
I have tendency to overplay my big pocets [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
He has set 8.

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Bravos' point was that the guy's range is heavily skewed i.e 95% likely to be big PP's, since he raises only 7.3% of his hands. So, the guy had a set of 8's...You are being results orientated playing the hand any other way than what has been suggested, which is long run -EV.

You did make a decent point though that he didn't 3bet PF, which could possibly eliminate AA and KK and maybe QQ. But this doesnt make any difference in regards to why check raising the turn is the most EV play. You are ahead here based on hand ranges 95% of the time so you gain more bets by check raising the turn. So, if your saying he's got jacks (which is a decent read), then why wouldn't you want to check raise the turn?

[neurotiq]

Well, I put in the second post in this thread, but it turned out to be the extreme minority (I think I'm the only person who advocated calling down?)

My thoughts:

His 7.3% PFR is something like: 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AQo+

Now, which of these hands wouldn't reraise preflop but would cap a flop? Based on stats, villain is quite TAGgy, so I think that JJ-AA are all hands that he would've reraised preflop. With that in mind, I think this is 88 more often than not. I think 99 and TT are possibilities, too--although I think those ones tend to slow down after we 3bet both preflop and on the flop. 88 seems like the most likely candidate for a flop cap.

Since I do think that 99/TT are possibilities, I still want to call down, though. But that doesn't mean that I want to put more money into this hand than I have to. I go for the cheapest showdown I can here.

[knockonwood]

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Well, I put in the second post in this thread, but it turned out to be the extreme minority (I think I'm the only person who advocated calling down?)

My thoughts:

His 7.3% PFR is something like: 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AQo+

Now, which of these hands wouldn't reraise preflop but would cap a flop? Based on stats, villain is quite TAGgy, so I think that JJ-AA are all hands that he would've reraised preflop. With that in mind, I think this is 88 more often than not. I guess 99 and TT are possibilities, too, though--although I think those ones tend to slow down after we 3bet both preflop and on the flop. 88 seems like the most likely candidate for a flop cap.

Since I do think that 99/TT are possibilities, I still want to call down, though. But that doesn't mean that I want to put more money into this hand than I have to. I go for the cheapest showdown I can here.

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I think you'll find that 88 is not an open raising hand for a 7.3% raiser from UTG2.

[neurotiq]

Actually, I did get that range from Poker Stove for a 7.3% PFR (a simple copy/paste, as a matter of fact). Although if you pointed out that the Poker Stove range isn't necessarily the same range that a poker player actually uses, you'd be correct there.

EDIT: Never mind. Looks like knockonwood edited out the bit about how I should look this up in Poker Stove to check the range. I originally put this up as a direct response to that claim; now my response doesn't make a lot of sense with that edited out, hehe.

[JJack]

After thinking most rational hands rage would be strong FD with overcards like AQs, AJs, set or JJ/QQ.

Still think that bet/call turn would be ok and just call down is to weak becouse villain can take free card and its why I dont like c/r.

[knockonwood]

This thread is turning into a train wreck.

[Bulletproof Monk]

i b/c but im not sure its best

[Mitke]

Well, I don't think a tightish TAG would cap the flop with a FD too often in a HU pot. Hero is surely representing a made hand by bet/3-betting.

Overpair is most likely but I wouldn't overrule 77/88 completely, especially if the table has been playing tight overall. He could be adjusting.

I'd also go with the c/r turn and c/c river if 3-bet line and bet river if not.


What goes for the 7% pfr openraise range picked from Stove: { 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AQo+ } I'd lose the Kx and Qx hands and be pretty content with it. However, flop action narrows Villain's range heavily towards made hands, IMO too.

[Yerma]

His 7.3 is based on 580-something hands. How do you know he's not really a 9-10? or a 5-6? I think all you really have on him after that many hands is that he's a TAG. So I think you're very often looking at 88 here.

[Harv72b]

I bet/call. He appears aggressive enough to make this play with AK/AQ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as well as with QQ/JJ (hand protection vs. MP1 in case he's ahead of you). I'm actually very close to bet/3bet on the turn, but it really sucks when we get capped there.

As for the other topics spawned by this thread...

580 hands is more than enough to get a pretty accurate fix on PFR percentage. On any of the usual 3 stats, really.

I do think 88 is in his range. He's raising from UTG+2, not UTG, and after it was folded to him. If anything, it's been my impression that many tight/passive players miss most of their raises in LP, behind one or more limpers, versus when first to act in a preflop pot. If the preflop action had gone UTG limps, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises, then I'd be more likely to rule 88 out of his range.