AA turn spot

[JJack]

$1.00/$2.00

BB ($114.95) (Hero)
UTG+2 ($59.15) 16/7.3/2.16 - 580 hands mined

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Button calls,

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( 6.25BB )
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Hero calls,

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( 11.25BB )

HERO ???

bet/call (i think this is better) or c/c

[Dankenstein]

Bet-call the turn and check call river if raised. If you aren't raised on the turn bet the river for value.

[neurotiq]

I usually just call down in this spot. The flop cap signals a lot of strength.

[knockonwood]

Utg 2 has raised PF. He is likely to have an over pair TT+, AKs or AQs. Checkraise the turn.

Edit: Donking the turn may be a better line on the turn to avoid giving a free card to an AKs, AQs flush draw.

[JJack]

[ QUOTE ]
Utg 2 has raised PF. He is likely to have an over pair TT+, AKs or AQs. Checkraise the turn.

Edit: Donking the turn may be a better line on the turn to avoid giving a free card to an AKs, AQs flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think that he would cap this flop with TT or JJ, Ahxh hands so often.

[knockonwood]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Utg 2 has raised PF. He is likely to have an over pair TT+, AKs or AQs. Checkraise the turn.

Edit: Donking the turn may be a better line on the turn to avoid giving a free card to an AKs, AQs flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think that he would cap this flop with TT or JJ, Ahxh hands so often.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put him on then? His stats suggest he is a tight raiser and aggressive.

[bravos1]

please c/r the turn.. what does he have that beats you here?? 77/88? He won't show up w/ a 2 ever here and he rarely has 88/77 here because most 7.3PFRs won't raise 88/77 in UTG+2.

my guess is TT+ like 95%+ heavily weighted to KK/AA

[JJack]

[ QUOTE ]
please c/r the turn.. what does he have that beats you here?? 77/88? He won't show up w/ a 2 ever here and he rarely has 88/77 here because most 7.3PFRs won't raise 88/77 in UTG+2.

my guess is TT+ like 95%+ heavily weighted to KK/AA

[/ QUOTE ]

Acctually I have played c/r turn but I think its mistake and better would be bet/call turn.

He makes to hot action at PF and he dont cap PF so its not so probbaly AA/KK/QQ. I guest it could be FD but not sure.
I have tendency to overplay my big pocets [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
He has set 8.

[Harv72b]

I bet/call. He appears aggressive enough to make this play with AK/AQ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as well as with QQ/JJ (hand protection vs. MP1 in case he's ahead of you). I'm actually very close to bet/3bet on the turn, but it really sucks when we get capped there.

As for the other topics spawned by this thread...

580 hands is more than enough to get a pretty accurate fix on PFR percentage. On any of the usual 3 stats, really.

I do think 88 is in his range. He's raising from UTG+2, not UTG, and after it was folded to him. If anything, it's been my impression that many tight/passive players miss most of their raises in LP, behind one or more limpers, versus when first to act in a preflop pot. If the preflop action had gone UTG limps, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises, then I'd be more likely to rule 88 out of his range.

[Mitke]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet/call. He appears aggressive enough to make this play with AK/AQ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as well as with QQ/JJ (hand protection vs. MP1 in case he's ahead of you). I'm actually very close to bet/3bet on the turn, but it really sucks when we get capped there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aww.. I missed MP1 and Btn totally... should not post before morning coffee..


Anyways, Villain raises Hero's c-bet when there's two still left to act behind him. He could do this with AK/AQ/AJ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] but to do this vs pfr from BB who 3-bet an EP raise + 2 cold-callers seems like a move we don't see too often(?).

He might prefer to keep the other two in the pot for implied odds with a draw. Still, with the MP1 still there the cap might be pumping the pot with AK/AQ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] often enough that b/c turn is good. Can't really tell which is best.