top set facing giant river overbet deep

haarbalz · #1 10-06-2007, 07:29 AM

villian is 30/26/4 (300 hands)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($38.40)
Hero ($96.60)
Button ($66.45)
SB ($206.85)
BB ($50.75)
UTG ($48.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB raises to $5.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.25.

Flop: ($11) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $7.75, Hero calls $7.75.

Turn: ($26.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($26.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $193.85 (All-In), Hero ??

Schiester · #2 10-06-2007, 07:48 AM

What else do you know about this guy? Has he been 3 betting much? Whats your image? If we say his his pf3bet range is JJ+ and AK...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

237,600 games 0.313 secs 759,105 games/sec

Board: 7d 9d 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.158% 54.83% 00.33% 130275 781.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 44.842% 44.51% 00.33% 105762 781.50 { TT }

... you have around 45% equity on this flop and have to raise his flop bet to felt out where you are.

I'm hoping he's folding AK (and 88) here and shoving / calling with hands that have you beat. If he calls and hand plays as above I'm calling the river bet for sure.

... I have a feeling that as played 88 got there with the same card that made your hand.

As played I'm calling and spewing on the monitor if he's ahead w 88 which is the only hand that has you beat.

Spurious · #3 10-06-2007, 08:00 AM

I doubt he got a str8, looks like missed clubs to me.
He could have missed AKs/AQs or maybe even QQ+.

He raises a lot pf, so 88 might be in his range as well, but that would be an extremely fishy move - 3betting OOP with 88.

I think the best line would have been:
call pf, call flop, bet turn and go for a cheap showdown.

Zaid_Ahmed · #4 10-06-2007, 09:32 AM

he has a str8 here 100% of the time. come on

Poker's Busmalis · #5 10-06-2007, 10:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
he has a str8 here 100% of the time. come on

[/ QUOTE ]

yep probably tried to c/r turn and didn't work out so overbet the river

i fold this

Lostit · #6 10-06-2007, 10:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
he has a str8 here 100% of the time. come on

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that you're deep stacked, says to me that he has it. If you're normal stack sizes you've got an aarguement for a bluff, but I've rarely seen a deep stack do this and not have. Most people don't want to risk that much. One stack is okay, 2 stacks? Not so much. I've donked off enough stacks in this situation to feel like I have my PHD in these types of hands, and for the amount of times that they have it, versus the amount of times its a bluff, this is massive -EV.

Also, look at his line. He minraised you preflop, but with his PFA this is normal for him. Then on the flop he threw out a bet, which he would probably if he had an OE straight draw.

On the turn, he makes his straight, but because he's OOP, he checks to you, probably hoping you'd bet. If your positions were reversed and he checked behind, then its a totally different ball game. Instead we have a potential stack-a-donk move by him that you ruined by checking behind. I think if you bet there, he was coming over the top 100% of the time right there.

Instead we get to the river, and does this massive overbet. I say he has it and I can get my money in better somewhere else.

thing85 · #7 10-06-2007, 10:37 AM

I don't think he has the straight. What did he 3bet OOP with? The only possible hand that he 3bets with and gives him the straight is 88. Villain seems pretty aggressive and if he doesn't put YOU on the straight, he might make this move with any set or overpair. 77, 99, 66, 55. Occasionally I protect my blinds with small PPs like these. Also, he could easily have QQ+.

The part of the "story" that makes no sense is why does he make the giant bet on the river? If he has the straight and doesn't put you on a straight, wouldn't he want a call? I can't see TAGDonkey trying to push you out of a pot that he crushes. This really looks like a scared set or over pair (or rarely, a busted flush draw) trying to take down the hand. The board does look dangerous and if he doesn't have the straight, he's crazy to risk that stack on the chance that YOU might have the straight. But some guys get really attached to their reads and if he didn't read you for a straight draw right off the bat, he might make this move.

With that said, it could be close, and with the deep stacks involved, it all comes down to how much variance you're comfortable with in your bankroll and what your gut tells you. Has he made similar moves to this before (you do have 300 hands on him)? Could he be tilting? I think it's still +EV to make the crying call here, but be prepared to feel sick.

Lostit · #8 10-06-2007, 11:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he has the straight. What did he 3bet OOP with? The only possible hand that he 3bets with and gives him the straight is 88. Villain seems pretty aggressive and if he doesn't put YOU on the straight, he might make this move with any set or overpair. 77, 99, 66, 55. Occasionally I protect my blinds with small PPs like these. Also, he could easily have QQ+.

The part of the "story" that makes no sense is why does he make the giant bet on the river? If he has the straight and doesn't put you on a straight, wouldn't he want a call? I can't see TAGDonkey trying to push you out of a pot that he crushes. This really looks like a scared set or over pair (or rarely, a busted flush draw) trying to take down the hand. The board does look dangerous and if he doesn't have the straight, he's crazy to risk that stack on the chance that YOU might have the straight. But some guys get really attached to their reads and if he didn't read you for a straight draw right off the bat, he might make this move.

With that said, it could be close, and with the deep stacks involved, it all comes down to how much variance you're comfortable with in your bankroll and what your gut tells you. Has he made similar moves to this before (you do have 300 hands on him)? Could he be tilting? I think it's still +EV to make the crying call here, but be prepared to feel sick.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good reasoning and this why I personally have donated so much in this situation. In my experience, I've called this a lot, at this level thinking the same thing, and they've had it almost every time.

I agree with you, that I'd rather extract value, but there a significant amount of people who like to do this.

Question to this poster:
In what circumstances ARE you personally making this bet?

Me personally, I'm not, I'm looking for value. If you're playing it the same way I am (as the villain), then you don't think the way this villain does.

kroeliewoelie · #9 10-06-2007, 12:02 PM

I wonder why nobody talked about your turnplay. Personally I would have preferred betting the turn. I personally doubt that this board connects well with his 3betting range from the small blind, even though he is quite laggy.

In that way you
1) don't give free cards to club draws
2) win the pot in some cases, because he obviously cannot call with overcards, with which he is definitely capable of cbetting this flop
3) protect against bluffs on the river
4) gain the initiative in the hand

I wonder how others judge this reasoning.

thing85 · #10 10-06-2007, 12:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder why nobody talked about your turnplay. Personally I would have preferred betting the turn. I personally doubt that this board connects well with his 3betting range from the small blind, even though he is quite laggy.

In that way you
1) don't give free cards to club draws
2) win the pot in some cases, because he obviously cannot call with overcards, with which he is definitely capable of cbetting this flop
3) protect against bluffs on the river
4) gain the initiative in the hand

I wonder how others judge this reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. It gives you an idea of where you're at and you can probably fold to a large raise. Also, it makes playing the river easier, most likely. Just make sure it isn't a weak donk bet...