NFL Week 10 player props thread

[silentbob]

Not many juicy lines this week. Lots with small but not bet-able edges. The only one I jumped on this morning is:

Shaun McDonald under 5 pass receptions at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog). It moved to -135 about 5 minutes after I bet it. Fair line is closer to 3.5 IMO. Before last week, he had been seeing fewer targets. Calvin Johnson is finally getting healthy, plus the Lions have gotten awfully conservative on offense recently. Arizona's pass defense is about average.

There are a handful of other props that I think are decent but not great, will investigate further but this week's card may be a small one for me.

[EWS87]

edit: moved to more appropriate thread

[silentbob]

One more:

Adrian Peterson over 1.5 pass receptions at +105 for 1 unit (Bodog). Certainly, the Vikings have been targeting him less in the passing game because he's such a stud carrying the ball. My numbers suggest this is slightly better than a 50/50 proposition, but I have two better reasons to bet. First, Green Bay's run defense is pretty good, so the Vikings will want to get ADP the ball in a position for him to make plays. The Vikings may be passing a lot anyway if they're behind. Also, Sidney Rice is out so the Vikings have no real receiving threat. They may target ADP more for this reason as well. Anyway, the positive juice doesn't hurt either.

There were several other props that the numbers told me to bet but I'm passing on for one reason or another.

Adrian Peterson +0.5 fantasy points vs. Brett Favre (Minnesota's pass defense is horrible, plus ADP has been too feast or famine)

Philip Rivers +8.5 fantasy points vs. Peyton Manning (Rivers is even more feast or famine)

Ben Roethlisberger over 235.5 passing yards (He's dinged up, plus the Steelers have had success running against the Browns and may want to play ball control to keep Anderson off the field)

There is one other prop I'm eyeing and may bet once the inactives for the late games are posted. Anyway, good luck to everyone.

ETA: Warrick Dunn over 58.5 rushing yards at -110 for 1 unit (Bodog). I had been leaning on this one anyway, because my numbers suggested a fair line in the 60s. Jerious Norwood is inactive, which means Dunn will probably have a carry total in the low 20s instead of the high teens. He would need to play quite badly not to reach 60 yards given that many touches.

[thing85]

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One more:

Adrian Peterson over 1.5 pass receptions at +105 for 1 unit (Bodog).

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Winner in the 2nd Q - that was fast.

[silentbob]

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Philip Rivers NO interception in the first half at +125 for 1 unit (VIP/BetGameDay)

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Wow, I thought this was in the bag when SD went up 16-0. But he decides to throw into triple coverage anyway. I'm not sure who's the bigger dumbf*ck, him or me.

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Shaun McDonald under 5 pass receptions at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog)

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Garbage time sucks.

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Adrian Peterson over 1.5 pass receptions at +105 for 1 unit (Bodog)

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Probably the only line ADP covered today.

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Warrick Dunn over 58.5 rushing yards at -110 for 1 unit (Bodog)

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Managed to jump on this one before Bodog took it down.

This week: 2-2, +0.11 units
YTD: 27-19, +6.78 units