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#1
10-06-2007, 04:22 PM
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NFL Week 5 player props thread
Bodog is releasing its lines as I type, so my picks will be on a rolling basis. I see one pick so far:
Dwayne Bowe under 70.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). The line is an over-reaction to his monster game last week, during which his 51-yard reception resulted from a fluke error. The Jaguars have one of the better pass defenses around, and Mathis is a zillion times the CB as Jammer. Plus, Kennison's return means fewer targets for Bowe. This is a big number to lay for a largely unproven rookie. YTD: 8-12, -5.27 units 
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#2
10-06-2007, 05:08 PM
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Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread
[ QUOTE ]
YTD: 8-12, -5.27 units [/ QUOTE ] Can you please explain real quick what units refers to? Is that just the standard amount of a bet for a given player ?
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#3
10-06-2007, 05:15 PM
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Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread
I have Tatum Bell u45.5 rushing yards. Butterfingers Bell has been trash this year and Kevin Jones should see more carries this week. Oh yea, the Lions pass a LOT.
Lee Evans o67.5 recieving yards. Well, he has to break out eventually right? Trent Edwards looked his way a lot last week and they will be passing a ton on sunday. I have a feeling 80-90 yards is pretty reasonable. Jay Cutler -2.5 vs Phillip Rivers in total fantasy points. I love this one. LT is gonna run a lot in this one. I don't see Rivers scoring very many fantasy points. I wanted to see what you thought about this one. Tony Romo is 20/1 to score the games first TD. He has to run it in of course, but doesn't 20/1 seem pretty high?
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#4
10-06-2007, 05:52 PM
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Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread
[ QUOTE ]
I wanted to see what you thought about this one. Tony Romo is 20/1 to score the games first TD. He has to run it in of course, but doesn't 20/1 seem pretty high? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, it does SEEM high. You see, this is how the sportsbooks make money.
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#5
10-06-2007, 06:37 PM
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Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I wanted to see what you thought about this one. Tony Romo is 20/1 to score the games first TD. He has to run it in of course, but doesn't 20/1 seem pretty high? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, it does SEEM high. You see, this is how the sportsbooks make money. [/ QUOTE ] Please don't reply to me anymore, thanks.
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#6
10-06-2007, 06:50 PM
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Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] YTD: 8-12, -5.27 units [/ QUOTE ] Can you please explain real quick what units refers to? Is that just the standard amount of a bet for a given player ? [/ QUOTE ] forum faq i'm sure has it, but quickly, yes. a unit isn't supposed to be more than 1-2% of your bankroll to ensure the best chance of not going broke. multi-unit (2 or 3 or 4) plays are only reserved for the games where you think you have the biggest edge. $1000 bankroll should have $10-$20 units...
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#8
10-07-2007, 09:31 AM
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Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread
[ QUOTE ]
Jay Cutler -2.5 vs Phillip Rivers in total fantasy points. I love this one. LT is gonna run a lot in this one. I don't see Rivers scoring very many fantasy points. [/ QUOTE ] The projections I use have Cutler scoring 13 and Rivers scoring 10, so there isn't huge value IMO. If I had to play any of them, it would be Garcia +7.5 vs. Peyton. Only 4 points per TD pass is key. I have Peyton scoring 16 and Garcia 12. Juice may not be worth the squeeze, though. Also, if Kenton Keith starts it's possible that Peyton will be passing a ton. BTW, the Bowe line is back up, except at 65.5 yards. Some new props are also up, don't see anything good yet.
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#9
10-07-2007, 10:46 AM
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Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread
Pickings are so slim, that I've decided to go the other way on a prop:
Plaxico Burress over 4 pass receptions at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog). The line for #1 WRs is usually 5, sometimes 6. Plexiglass has been playing hurt all year but is still the most targeted receiver on the team. The Jets have a horrible secondary, one of the NFL's worst. I think the over wins about 45 percent of the time, pushes about 30, and loses about 25. I'm also eyeing Hasselbeck under 260.5 passing yards. It will depend entirely on whether Polamalu and Hampton play for the Steelers. ETA: Peyton Manning under 285.5 passing yards at -120 for 1 unit (Bodog). Juggernaut offense vs. the Tampa Cover 2. Without a second deep threat (Harrison), the Bucs can focus on keeping Wayne in check. Dallas Clark will probably get his, but I think Peyton will be forced into nickel-and-diming his way down the field. Tony Ugoh is also playing hurt, so Peyton may face more pressure than usual. My big concern is that TB won't be able to maintain possession. Ultimately, I think the line is about 15 to 20 yards too high. Vincent Jackson under 60.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). He's the most-targeted WR on the Chargers but still gets fewer looks than Gates and LT2. With Champ and Dre blanketing him all game, I don't expect him to see many passes thrown at him. Also, both teams are so weak against the run that I think the clock will be running for most of the game.
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#10
10-07-2007, 11:20 AM
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Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread
If you think Plax will average 5.5 catches, then the bet will win 60% of the time, push about 20%, and lose about 20%. ROI is about 28%.
I think he'll average 4.75, so you win 50%, push 20%, and lose 30%, for an ROI of 10%. Not good enough of an edge for me, but not a bad bet either.
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