silentbob's Week 12 player props thread

[silentbob]

Looking for a turnaround this week. I'm gonna fade another one of my favorite players.

Chad Johnson under 65 receiving yards at +230 for 0.5 unit, 66-100 receiving yards at +190 for 0.5 unit. Banking on the Cleveland secondary again, which is still one of best in the NFL at shutting down #1 WRs and fairly strong overall. They barely missed on the Hines Ward bet last week. Ocho Cinco had no 100-yard games this season until two weeks ago. I don't think the Bengals will need to pass nearly as much against the Browns.

More later in the week when Bodog gets its act together.

YTD: 19-7-1, +10.46 units

[silentbob]

Yay, glad to see Bodog put up the props before the morning of the game.

Two bets for Thanksgiving:

Terry Glenn under 5 receptions at -115 for 1 unit. TB is gonna be hard-pressed to score, Dallas will probably jump out to a huge lead and stop passing at some point in the second half. Glenn has had only two games with more than 5 receptions. At worst, this bet pushes I think.

Jake Plummer under 200.5 passing yards at -125 for 1 unit. Shanahan has no trust in the passing game at this point. Denver has been ultra-conservative on offense, and unless Plummer completes a couple of long bombs, I'd be surprised to see him top 150 yards frankly.

[Jordan]

i like at bodog [ QUOTE ]
What will happen first for Joey Harrington
Player must play for action. Game must go 55 minutes for action. Overtime count towards wager. No Parlays. Max $100
(6025) Throw a TD Pass -130 Thu@12:00p


[/ QUOTE ]


soley because it's priced at -155 over at thegreek.com making a fair price of -140 after you subtract their 15c of juice. i think thegreek has more accurate lines.

[silentbob]

Looks like the Harrington prop worked out. Congrats.

I'm taking one more for now, am still tracking a couple of others depending on who plays and who doesn't.

Thomas Jones under 21.5 rushing attempts at -120 for 2 units. It's at -130 on Bodog now, and I can see why. The Patriots are one of the best run-stuffing teams in the league. If the Patriots jump ahead, which is reasonably likely (though certainly not a lock), the Bears will need to air it out.

As for Thursday's bets, I totally misread Shanahan's game plan, he went totally pass-happy even though the Chiefs weren't exactly shutting down the run. Terry Glenn scored twice and nearly hit 5 receptions but Dallas took a big lead as expected.

Good luck to all.

This week: 1-1, -0.13 units
YTD: 20-8-1, +10.33 units

[silentbob]

LOL @ Bodog giving me an ultra-sharp line for props now.

I was contemplating taking Roethlisberger under 235.5 passing yards at -120 if Ward was out. But he's playing, so I decided to pass. Interestingly, however, the juice on Roethlisberger is now -105/-135 for me (it's -120/-120 when I check the props page using my other browser). For most of the other props, I'm charged an extra 5 cents for taking the under.

Maybe it's time for me to find some value in betting the over on some props...

[Ortho]

hmm. I also have -105/-135, though I don't play a ton of NFL props. Perhaps it's just part of the general sharp line package?

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL @ Bodog giving me an ultra-sharp line for props now.

I was contemplating taking Roethlisberger under 235.5 passing yards at -120 if Ward was out. But he's playing, so I decided to pass. Interestingly, however, the juice on Roethlisberger is now -105/-135 for me (it's -120/-120 when I check the props page using my other browser). For most of the other props, I'm charged an extra 5 cents for taking the under.

Maybe it's time for me to find some value in betting the over on some props...

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like the sharp shade is worsening unders on props and dog side vig, 5 to 10 cents each is what I am getting.

Moneylines on NFL appear the same, however.

[silentbob]

My mid-season hot streak is officially over, so whether Bodog is screwing me over with sharp lines is largely moot. Stupid Patriots defense.

This week: 1-3, -3.13 units
YTD: 21-11-1, +7.33 units