200/400 NL - Overbet = Nuts?

[spivey]

Rate these bluffs:

First against NicholasJ, second against an unknown:

------------------
HAND #1
------------------

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $304
SB: $149.80
BB: $81.50
UTG: $261.35
MP: $477.35
CO: $244.20

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $7, SB calls $6, BB folds

Flop: ($23) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, UTG bets $18, Hero calls $18, SB folds

Turn: ($59) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $40, UTG calls $40

River: ($139) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $239 and is All-In




------------------
HAND #2
------------------

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $125
CO: $400
BTN: $463
SB: $676.50
Hero (BB): $400
UTG: $865

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, BTN raises to $14, SB folds, Hero raises to $44, BTN calls $30

Flop: ($90) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $60, BTN calls $60

Turn: ($210) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $296 and is All-In

[spivey]

I have played a few hundred hands with NicholasJ, no history.

[freedom18]

dont like any of this unless u do it with the nuts aswell.

majority of the time you arent betting a FH like this etc especially hand 2

[spivey]

They don't know if I do this with the nuts or trips in the first hand, something like AK/AA/KK in the second. I'd rather not say if I do.

[FishSticks]

Well in hand 2 the overbet facet of the hand doesn't really matter that much, since most bets you make are committing you. If you just potted it and left yourself 80 back it wouldn't make a ton of sense. This seems kind of dicey against a total unknown to me, but maybe I'm being nitty.

In hand 1 I don't really know your opponent, so I don't have great insight - but I wouldn't expect him to c/c the turn to c/f the river on a blank given the board and action, etc. I don't know, though - maybe the overbet will freak him out.

[spivey]

Hand 2 I think the turn a great card to do this. Obv because of equity but also because of how it doesn't help his range/helps what I'm repping. Agree/disagree?

[jono]

hand 1 no

hand 2 bet bigger flop so you have closer to pot on turn. Villian dependent also.

[spivey]

[ QUOTE ]
hand 1 no

hand 2 bet bigger flop so you have closer to pot on turn. Villian dependent also.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range do you put villain on in hand 1, and against a TAG, how much of it do you think he'll call with?

[Dire]

Hand 1 looks like a bluff. You're really only representing 66 or air, but you'd probably try to actually get some value with 66.

The bluff looks much better on hand 2, but there doesn't seem to be any reason to shove the turn. Betting $140 accomplishes exactly the same thing since there's almost no hands that call $140 but fold to the shove. If he has top pair then he's stacking, if he has QQ or whatever then he's folding for $140 or the shove. Nice to give him a chance to make a big mistake and just call with AQ or whatever.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1 looks like a bluff. You're really only representing 66 or air, but you'd probably try to actually get some value with 66.

The bluff looks much better on hand 2, but there doesn't seem to be any reason to shove the turn. Betting $140 accomplishes exactly the same thing since there's almost no hands that call $140 but fold to the shove. If he has top pair then he's stacking, if he has QQ or whatever then he's folding for $140 or the shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

In Hand 1, no [censored] way I'd check behind AK/AQ/random 7, and pushing is ok. His hand looks a hell of a lot like AT/AJ/etc.

In Hand 2, if I had some very good hand that I wanted to bet to protect/for value, I'd push as well; betting 2/3 or 3/4 leaves you with dumb stack sizes.

Whether or not villain knows this/thinks on this level is way more important any other read.