Sunday turbo rebuys chronic?

[unconscious]

I've been playing these almost exclusively for a year, I really think I need help. This structure can't be helping my game, which I'm pretty sure is actually digressing. This is a pretty weak thread I know but, can anyone offer advise on some transitional MTTs to get me out of this rut? I mean breaking even for the last year makes me want to quit poker, what a [censored] waste of my time. When I was at party I was a winning player, now Im just treading water? wtf? I run a business which is seasonal and was hoping to play pro this winter (instead of working @ a gay job I dont care about), only to realize I don't want to make a living on $11Rs all day. I respect alot of ppl here so any advise is very appreciated. Oh one more thing...Ill be going from a 3 hrs play window to a 10+hr play window, BR of 5k.

[MJBuddy]

How are you possibly breakeven at 11+R Turbo sats?


Just read strategy forums. You absolutely must have leaks in your game for this to be the case.

[unconscious]

not exactly break even, but w/ ~$700 profit I might as well be.

[BrandiFan]

Read ssmtt, all the turbo rebuy sats are SUPER soft, especially on sundays
Edit: don't just read, post too.

[McMelchior]

[ QUOTE ]
How are you possibly breakeven at 11+R Turbo sats?


Just read strategy forums. You absolutely must have leaks in your game for this to be the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa, this is so wrong.

Variance in tournaments is huge, and the prevalence of wildly LAGing clueless players - of which there are an un-precedented amount in the $11 turbo rebuy sats - multiplies variance many times.

Combine that with the fact that there are a relatively limited amount of these tourneys going off each week.

You can play hundreds of these sats as a "true" winner and still come out behind.

Look to some of Bond's post for a deeper understanding of this.

[BrandiFan]

[ QUOTE ]
Variance in tournaments is huge, and the prevalence of wildly LAGing clueless players - of which there are an un-precedented amount in the $11 turbo rebuy sats - multiplies your ev many times.


[/ QUOTE ]these tournaments are way easy and the fact that they are ITM payouts reduces varience. The $8r and $10r turbo sats that pay $215 seats are quite a bit lower varience than any nl tournament with a standard pay/blind structure imo.

[McMelchior]

It's absolutely correct that the flat payout structure reduces variance, but the fact that they are 5 minute turbos certainly increases it.

With a re-buy period of 30 minutes you figure to see 30 - 35 hands before the add-on.

Against a host of "re-buy nut" type players this phase of the tournament is more or less sheer gambling - you will get lucky and build a good stack once in a while, but you will also experience down swings where you spend 5 rebuy just to have around t3,200 - t3,400 after add-on.

With blinds at 200/100/25 you'll see 5 - 6 hands with 16 - 17 BBs, and then blinds go to 400/200/25, and you'll have another 5 - 6 hands with only 7 - 8 BB - unless you get lucky.

During this period - and beyond - you'll be up against desperate short stacks recklessly going all-in virtually at the drop of a hat.

Basically this tournament format leaves little to no room for post-flop skills, but emphasizes satellite specific pre-flop skills. Which is what Adanthar talked about in his original satellite post.

These skills are somewhat anti-intuitive, which gives the advantage over less reflecting players - but they also calls for very clear considerations over your opponents satellite specific skill level (pushing a wide range of hands is often correct because it would be incorrect for your opponent to call, but if your opponent doesn't realize this you might suddenly have to limit your pushing range substantially etc.).

And - to apply the satellite specific skill edge you need to actually make to the late middle to late parts of the tourney, and that is frequently not going to happen.

I believe it's a mis-conception to claim that these tourneys "are way easy".

Well, obv something you're good at is easy for you, but without some level of ICM studying you're just not going to come out a long term winner here.

EDIT: IIRC STT forum consensus is that you need 500 - 1000 STTs to pin a correct ROI within 10 percentage points. Since SSTs typically pay 33% of the players, and the $11 re-buy turbo super sats typically pay half as many players, the variance must be higher. I have yet to see claims about how easy these are to cash in from anybody with a statistically significant amount of tourneys under the belt - who isn't already a very successful tournament player.

[BrandiFan]

fwiw, I have a 94% roi over 565 sats which are mainly turbos.

[McMelchior]

[ QUOTE ]
fwiw, I have a 94% roi over 565 sats which are mainly turbos.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are obviously a very successful tournament player with (according to OPR) a net profit of $30k+ within current year with a <$20 ABI.

That a player of your caliber finds the $11 turbo rebuys easy does not really have a lot of bearing for the vast majority of posters here on 2 + 2.

That said, within the last 3 month I counted that you (and I appologize in advance if I missed some) specificly cashed 6 times in $8.80 & $11 re-buy sats to the $215.

You might have many good reasons for not playing more of them, and I'll be the last to challenge them, but it kinda gives me the idea that you might find other tournaments easier to profit from?

[BrandiFan]

The strat for these seems simple to me, but in retrospect, strategy games always have...
It sounds retarded, but sometimes I forget that other people don't think exactly how I do.
Edit: I hope I don't come off like cocky jerk, I am really not.
Also, I thought the number was way higher than that for my turbo rebuy wins. Maybe I am dumping after all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]