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#21
08-11-2007, 07:41 PM
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Re: Spots we rarely think about
Yeah, we have about 40% equity against reasonably loose ranges. Also they have at least 25% chance to improve, and usually > 35%. We have less than 10%. OTOH there are no turn cards that we'd feel any better about putting money in, and we don't have a robust enough holding to call a 2 street bluff. But we can call turn some of the time so to cut down on being exploitable. But by checking we just give 6+ out hands a free shot at a 12bb pot, and don't make up much in return for the times we get him to bluff.
I think a really important factor here is how often he c/r. SSNL opponents don't bluff c/r enough as carrot mentioned, so I think betting for protection (he will have an unpaired hand > 50% of the time) will generally be a +EV play. I would actually much rather check down a hand like A7 here. 
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#23
08-11-2007, 07:53 PM
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Re: Spots we rarely think about
ok look here's the gist of why im considering folding it pre.
in any reasonable HU match, if we open 22, if opponent has any reasonable hand to make top pair with (qj+ ish) he's gonna 3bet. you can't really profitably call the 3bets (this assumption may be wrong, im a 6max player). so if we open 22 and get called, he has random middle cards, or crappy kickers against broadway, whatever - but ALL of them will pair higher than us. we will not play a big pot if we hit our set. about the only big pots we will ever play is when he hits top two or top and bottom when we have a set. otherwise, we are going to be in lots of small pots where we have no idea if we should bet or check, no idea if he has paired or is drawing, no idea about anything, other than we're gonna have to bloat the pot to get him off of middle or bottom pair, which is typically a bad idea. on the plus side, if he's tight, its a steal hand. ... thats all i've got for plusses. edit: at least if you are stealing against a tight player with t6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], you make a pair 1/3 the time, and when you bet and get called you stand a chance to improve and or have been called by a worse pair. this is never the case with 22. i think my argument is becoming similar to why limit players fold 44- pre
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#25
08-11-2007, 07:55 PM
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Re: Spots we rarely think about
ak has 6 outs
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#29
08-11-2007, 08:06 PM
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Re: Spots we rarely think about
[ QUOTE ]
ok look here's the gist of why im considering folding it pre. in any reasonable HU match, if we open 22, if opponent has any reasonable hand to make top pair with (qj+ ish) he's gonna 3bet. you can't really profitably call the 3bets (this assumption may be wrong, im a 6max player). [/ QUOTE ] i stopped reading here because this assumption is very wrong a pair HU is the nuts, regardless of a 3bet
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#30
08-11-2007, 08:14 PM
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Re: Spots we rarely think about
[ QUOTE ]
ok look here's the gist of why im considering folding it pre. in any reasonable HU match, if we open 22, if opponent has any reasonable hand to make top pair with (qj+ ish) he's gonna 3bet. you can't really profitably call the 3bets (this assumption may be wrong, im a 6max player). so if we open 22 and get called, he has random middle cards, or crappy kickers against broadway, whatever - but ALL of them will pair higher than us. we will not play a big pot if we hit our set. about the only big pots we will ever play is when he hits top two or top and bottom when we have a set. otherwise, we are going to be in lots of small pots where we have no idea if we should bet or check, no idea if he has paired or is drawing, no idea about anything, other than we're gonna have to bloat the pot to get him off of middle or bottom pair, which is typically a bad idea. on the plus side, if he's tight, its a steal hand. ... thats all i've got for plusses. edit: at least if you are stealing against a tight player with t6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], you make a pair 1/3 the time, and when you bet and get called you stand a chance to improve and or have been called by a worse pair. this is never the case with 22. i think my argument is becoming similar to why limit players fold 44- pre [/ QUOTE ] If they start 3-betting all broadways or some such range OOP, that is very exploitable. You might start losing a bit of EV with 22, but you gain EV with other hands in your range. You didn't mention one important fact that is that 22 will flop a monster 1/8 times.
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