100/200 online hand

[Paluka]

Decent 100/200 game on party.
29/17 guy utg limps. You limp next to act 88, and then a 22/19 raises. 2 cold callers, bb calls, and utg and you call.
Flop T44 with 2 diamonds. check, check, you bet, pfr raises. folded to utg who cold calls and you call.
Turn T. utg bets.
Your action?

[ILOVEPOKER929]

I think this is a pretty clear fold on the turn. UTG's turn bet combined with his flop cold-call spells doom for you, and the other villain's preflop raise combined with his flop raise is a bad sign for you also. The probability that you have both these guys beat given the action is too low to continue, and im not even factoring in those times you miraculously have the best hand on the turn only to get outdrawn on the river.

I know what youre thinking though. If theres a decent enough chance that you have the UTG guy beat, raising the turn may be the best play cuz even if the villain behind you has Aces theres just no way he can call after your flop+turn action. Youre overlimp preflop also even supports Tx. So in reality you may not think you even need to have both villains beat.

So thats really the crux of this hand. Is it worth raising the turn against the UTG's turn betting range after he cold-called the flop, assuming the player behind you is capable of folding a better hand?

Without a stronger read, I think folding the turn is the best play, but this is certainly open to debate.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a pretty clear fold on the turn. UTG's turn bet combined with his flop cold-call spells doom for you, and the other villain's preflop raise combined with his flop raise is a bad sign for you also. The probability that you have both these guys beat given the action is too low to continue, and im not even factoring in those times you miraculously have the best hand on the turn only to get outdrawn on the river.

I know what youre thinking though. If theres a decent enough chance that you have the UTG guy beat, raising the turn may be the best play cuz even if the villain behind you has Aces theres just no way he can call after your flop+turn action. Youre overlimp preflop also even supports Tx. So in reality you may not think you even need to have both villains beat.

So thats really the crux of this hand. Is it worth raising the turn against the UTG's turn betting range after he cold-called the flop, assuming the player behind you is capable of folding a better hand?

Without a stronger read, I think folding the turn is the best play, but this is certainly open to debate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis.

You REALLY need a specific read on UTG as capable of being out of line postflop to raise there.

[chaosuk]

I think you'd probably just need to know you're opponent's tricky to consider raising a possibility. It's a great opportunity for a semi-bluff with a flush draw for utg. But a blind 29/17 would be likely be a fold. But if he's a winner with those stats then he's prlly tricky!

An interesting variation on the theme, might be if you checked called the flop and he bets out the turn. Whether you could shake off the overpair now becomes a matter of image. Unfortunately the turn semi-bluff lacks credibility from utg without the flop cold-call, so we should deem it less likely we're up against it from a tricky oppo.