River Bet Sizing With Weak Boat (FR .5/1)

[Bulletproof Monk]

.5/1 PL, Pokerstars, 9 handed

Hero ($220) is dealt: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG ($80) limps, I limp in MP, SB completes, thinking BB who is currently running hot ($200) raises to $5, UTG calls, I call.

Flop ($16): Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, UTG checks, I bet $14, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn ($44): 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet $40, BB calls.

River ($124): K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB Checks, I ???

[Flip-Flop]

I fire 100 bucks, a nice round number.
If he check raises me I yell at myself for being outplayed and punish myself by calling and I GTFO of my house for an hour.
But I doubt it.
It looks like AQ and he should negotiate himself to a call.

[AlexKP]

I bet 68-78 and instant fold to a CR

[TheRempel]

If he's a thinking player he's never going to call with AQxx unless he thinks you're bluffing. Its very very unlikely he has a boat unless he routinely checks the river when the second worst card for a made boat comes off. Bet the pot or check behind, I doubt very much you're getting any value bets in against a decent player.

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's a thinking player he's never going to call with AQxx unless he thinks you're bluffing. Its very very unlikely he has a boat unless he routinely checks the river when the second worst card for a made boat comes off. Bet the pot or check behind, I doubt very much you're getting any value bets in against a decent player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even with the quick read of "thinking" included, I think you're giving the typical 0.5/1 player on Stars way too much credit. If I'm up against a good player, I bet just under half the pot on the river and expect to get called by AQ every single time.

The difference between the thinking players and the bad ones is the bad ones will not only call with AQ, but will call with stuff like QTT7 as well. I'd guess that < 5% of 0.5/1 players on Stars get away from AQ on the river here. I guess you could say that a good BB would lead AQ here and if you take AQ out of his range and make it a check behind on that basis, I could see it, but if you think he can have AQ based on the flop and turn action, I think you have to V-bet the river. If you bet 1/2 pot and get C/Red, I think you can fold pretty comfortably.

[Bulletproof Monk]

thanks guys, i just needed a sanity check. i played this terribly and checked it down

he had QJTT

still not sure how much of a bet he is calling with that K out there tho, i guess i was worried about the equity i had lost due to KQ and KK type hands being in his range on the river

[wazz]

Don't worry. It certainly isn't a big leak to check behind the underfull here. We've all been burned with the underfull before. The thing about this hand is that he just keeps on checking and calling, which indicates he doesn't like his hand enough to bet, therefore he isn't full. He might be full sometimes, if he at all has a history of being tricky, in which case you should be checking behind a decent amount, but readless/with the knowledge that villain is a semithinking player we can get in a valuebet here. Not too much to fold out AQ or QJ, probably about half the pot. This is a spot where we can use our position very nicely.

[RoundTower]

I would bet 80-85, checking behind isn't a big mistake.