Fold Turn with boat? 230bb deep

GermanWunderkind · #1 01-09-2007, 01:14 PM

Here is a hand i recently played on Party 3/6 nl, i discussed it with some friends an we are disagreeing on turn play.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($1408)
Button (Big_D_11)/ ($1778.25)
SB ($687.20)
BB ($929.76)
UTG ($690.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, Hero raises to $18, Button (Big_D_11)/ calls $18, 2 folds.

Flop: ($45) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $33, Big_D_11 raises to $80, Hero raises to $282, Big_D_11 raises to $484, Hero calls $202.

Turn: ($1013) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Big_D_11 bets $400, Hero calls $400.

River: ($1813) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Big_D_11 calls $875.25 (All-In), Hero calls $505 (All-In).

Final Pot: $2823.25

Big_D_11 seems regular but playing a little aggro from time to time. My stats on him 22/12/6.0 at that spot over only 200 hands
Given his play preflop and on the flop i was putting him on AQ.

Questions:

1. I didnt push (or 5 bet) on the flop because i didnt want him to lay down AQ after his min 4 bet. Afterwards i think i should have pushed - he can still put me on KJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and call. Do u agree?
2. Given my read - should i fold the turn with a boat? im still winning against AK, AJ, KJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. But im virtually drawing dead against AQ and A2. I dont think that guy has AA or QQ.

Comments?

luckychewy · #2 01-09-2007, 01:21 PM

wow i would push flop for sure. a lot of money behind to play for and you aren't folding obv, i would expect to be ahead 99% of the time and if he 4-bet/folds AQ on this flop he's retarded but i don't think that's happening very often. once you get to the turn i like the check but once he bets i would push, if he really does have top 2 or a2 and sucked out so be it, but there isn't enough behind in relation to the pot for me to worry about that really.

kongo_totte · #3 01-09-2007, 01:24 PM

C/f turn. He pretty much showed his cards on flop.

delta k · #4 01-09-2007, 01:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
C/f turn. He pretty much showed his cards on flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

and what are they?

callme · #5 01-09-2007, 01:46 PM

QQ / AQ - i really dont see any other hands playing this that way - i think it doesnt matter that he didnt reraise PF - that just can be one of those too..

kongo_totte · #6 01-09-2007, 02:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
C/f turn. He pretty much showed his cards on flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

and what are they?

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
QQ / AQ - i really dont see any other hands playing this that way - i think it doesnt matter that he reraised PF - that just can be one of those too..

[/ QUOTE ]

Black winter day · #7 01-09-2007, 02:13 PM

Very important to know his stats and your reads.
I only might call turn vs unknowns and if i saw any indication that this guy is the type to overplay AK on the flop/or if he is agressive with draws.
Turn is a horrible card for you, since any reasonable hand you were ahead of on the flop just outdrew you...

If we do some simply math, assuming he is somewhat decent - He has AQ/A2/AA/QQ here like 75% of the time, AK/AJ/AT about 15% and some draw/air maybe 10% of the time (his reraises were too small for the hand to be a combodraw, but we'll combine this with the small possibitly he is bluffing).

So, after the turn card shows up, you have 900$ behind, pot is 1000$. So you need to invest 900$ to win 1900$, a little better than 2 to 1.You are good here only ~25% of the time so you need 3 to 1.I think this not an unreasonable estimate...

So, i'd might actually fold a boat here.I'd be very very suprised if he didn't have AQ the way it was played.

Oh, yeah - shove the flop.Then it would be a bad beat if he catches his 4 outer...

Blizzardbaum · #8 01-09-2007, 02:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Questions:

1. I didnt push (or 5 bet) on the flop because i didnt want him to lay down AQ after his min 4 bet. Afterwards i think i should have pushed - he can still put me on KJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and call. Do u agree?
2. Given my read - should i fold the turn with a boat? im still winning against AK, AJ, KJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. But im virtually drawing dead against AQ and A2. I dont think that guy has AA or QQ.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. I think that is bad logic. It is rare for someone to 4bet and then fold to a push. Just get it in on the flop. Also, given how this hand has played, I seriously doubt he puts you on KhJh or some other combo draw.
2. none of the hands you describe 4bet this flop unless the villain is a HUGE fish. His range is AA/QQ/AQ/A2/air. I don't see why people are rulling out AA/QQ. It's not standard, but sometimes you call behind with those hands. Also, sometimes you make quads. Rare, but it happens.

I don't see a single hand we're beating by the turn. You might as well light your money on fire at this point... but you should have got it in on the flop.