Your action?

[frenchpignouf]

If a BB 40/10 calls with 100% of his range on the flop, we have an equity edge around 60% on the turn. As BB don't c/ring often a pair, we win money by betting.


Board: 3h 7h 4h 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.605% 38.51% 01.10% 10471 298.50 { TT-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, AQo-A2o, K2o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
Hand 1: 60.395% 59.30% 01.10% 16124 298.50 { Ah9d }

With a J on the river if BB bets with 100% of his range, we are a small underdog. So by calling we loose money against BB (of course it's better than folding). So betting the turn+freeshodown (or fold the river to c/r) is better imo.

Board: 3h 7h 4h 2s Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.439% 58.67% 00.77% 345 4.50 { TT-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, AQo-A2o, K2o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
Hand 1: 40.561% 39.80% 00.77% 234 4.50 { Ah9d }

edit: I didn't take into account the fact than BB can have a flush and we can catch an ace on the river, but it's marginal.

[Oink]

French

You cant make that conclusion in that way.

Making those kind of equity calculations does not take into account what he does with his various holdings.

Say he has 97 no hearts. If he folds to a turn bet but bluffs the river you dont want him to fold it.

In other words: When deciding whether to bet you dont care about his range before you bet . You care about his range when he calls, raises and folds.

Since its a turn decision you also need to consider what he does with his various holdings on different rivers given different turn actions.

Its much more complicated that just stoving it. If you want to do a precise EV calc you need to make assumptions on his strategies given his various possible holdings. You prolly need more than one A4 sheet - even with some simplifying assumptions.

[Nfinity]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to check the turn I think you have to call practically all rivers, don't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not Really.

Assuming we have goaded villain into betting 100% on the River I think the actions we take the roughly 35% we do improve mitigate the losses we take the percentage of times we don't improve on the River AND our opponent is bluffing.

In short, given my idea of his hand range and the fact that we improve so much of time, I don't think he has a bluffing frequency in his range to make folding to MOST river bets unimproved incorrect.

[frenchpignouf]

Sorry I'm not sure to understand. My point is

1) If I bet turn and play good poker after, I win more money than if the turn was check check and the river check check UI.

2) If I check the turn, even if he's betting 100% of his range on a UI river, I win less money than if the turn was check check and the river check check UI.

Where am I wrong ?

[Oink]

French. I cant explain my points any better than in my post before. Sorry

[Nfinity]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry I'm not sure to understand. My point is

1) If I bet turn and play good poker after, I win more money than if the turn was check check and the river check check UI.

2) If I check the turn, even if he's betting 100% of his range on a UI river, I win less money than if the turn was check check and the river check check UI.

Where am I wrong ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your EV calculations are really only relevant if this is the last action possible in the hand (ie. your opponent only has 1 more bet)

It doesn't take into account the effects a set, straight or flush check-raising you on the Turn has on the EV of your bet.

It doesn't take into account the effect of you drawing out on a middling 1 pair hand that may or may not have folded to your Turn bet.

etc.

[HOWMANY]

Bet, gain a bet from a heart, you still have good equity if he has a pair. I'm assuming c/r is bad news for us and it means we don't have to call on A or 9 river although I probably would. His hand really shouldn't be strong enough to c/r here anyway so this looks like a simple spot to put in 1 bet between turn and river and putting the bet in now gives us the option of putting a bet in if we improve on the river. This seems like a really straightforward hand.

[DeathDonkey]

Bump for results. <><

-DeathDonkey

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Bump for results.

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn was checked through, river was a 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] The BB bet and showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the straight.

[Nfinity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bump for results.

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn was checked through, river was a 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] The BB bet and showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

JT,

Do you feel that your Turn check was correct? Why or why not?

Was there any bias to your River calls are were you simply calling any bet. In practice I would likely call like you, but when I analyzed the River decisions from the standpoint of a Turn check, very few cards that we did not improve on were safe, or even necessary to call on from a bluff stopping standpoint.

My analysis was based on a hand range geared more towards low-mid pairs, Mid to Low suited connectors, and several A, K, Q, J-little combinations which I assumed based on his Pre-flop and Flop play.