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Old 05-06-2007, 06:46 PM
illini43 illini43 is offline
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Default Blind Battle Math Check

I was watching the FT of the Maniac Rebuyfest today and I noticed a hand that caught my attention.

It was down to 5 players with blinds at 25,000/50,000 ante 2500.

The SB had 1,300,000 before posting and the BB had 476,500 before posting.

It was folded around to the SB who pushed all-in.

Now, let's assume that the SB's range is all possible hands, so he could have anything, which is what seems to be the case when good players feel they can make the BB fold.

The BB said he had Q6o and folded.

If you look at the math, the SB is getting a little over 1.2:1 to call. This would mean he can call with the top 54.5% of hands and still be slightly +EV (correct?).

Q6o is in this range, as well as hands like 95s, J3s, etc. I know this is the final table, and a lot of money is on the line to be calling with a hand like Q6o, but was this a mistake (in the sense of taking a small edge) on the BB's part assuming the SB's range is completely random?
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Old 05-06-2007, 07:07 PM
Yoshi63 Yoshi63 is offline
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Default Re: Blind Battle Math Check

I don't think the SB's range is completely random.
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Old 05-06-2007, 07:20 PM
misclick odds misclick odds is offline
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Default Re: Blind Battle Math Check

and Q6o is barely within the range anyway. 54.5 is 33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J3s+,T5s+,95s+,86s+,75s+,65s,A2 o+,K4o+,Q6o+,J7o+,T7o+,98o,87o

and if he has any kind of range, his equity isnt great. 80% is barely breakeven

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.342% 44.96% 02.38% 8943559656 472851603.00 { Q6o }
Hand 1: 52.658% 50.28% 02.38% 10000860402 472851603.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J3o+, T5o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o }

not to mention i dont think theres a reason he would shove that wide.
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