stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop

[bozlax]

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having c/r'd the flop, you need to lead pretty much 100% of turn cards.

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Agaisnt which hands is leading a good play?

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all of the hands against which you c/r the flop.

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What he said.

From Hermann:

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Do you really think that 2.0 is aggro for a guy seeing the flop at this rate?

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It's pretty aggressive, but it could also indicate a fit-or-fold style. I agree with Bella (I think it was) that said that these stats look like a 6max player that's taking a session at full ring. It could also be a NL player trying out limit.

[Sushiglutton]

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all of the hands against which you c/r the flop.

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Not true since we are b/f. If he bluff raise it's a disaster for us. I am not a big fan of the flop CR (since UTG should fold the same hands for one and two bets), but it's reasonable if villain can hold JJ-TT since we force out UTG (if he is somewhat loose). But the value of leading vs those hands on the turn is not clear if he bluffraises sometimes, or if he folds them.

[Sushiglutton]

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Do you really think that 2.0 is aggro for a guy seeing the flop at this rate?

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Higher VPIP => weaker hands pf => 'AF is higher than it seems'

So, yes I think 2.0 is pretty aggro.

[bozlax]

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all of the hands against which you c/r the flop.

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Not true since we are b/f. If he bluff raise it's a disaster for us. I am not a big fan of the flop CR (since UTG should fold the same hands for one and two bets), but it's reasonable if villain can hold JJ-TT since we force out UTG (if he is somewhat loose). But the value of leading vs those hands on the turn is not clear if he bluffraises sometimes, or if he folds them.

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Why do you think he's going to bluffraise? Because he bet when we checked to him?

You quoted some conventional wisdom regarding aggression factors; here's some more:

"They aren't bluffing you anywhere near as much as you think they are."

I would actually call it far more likely that he'd call down with AK, fearing we'd fold to a raise, than bluff raise.

[Sushiglutton]

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Why do you think he's going to bluffraise? Because he bet when we checked to him?


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Why take the risk?

[Douglas Leslie]

The check raise is close, but might be worthwhile to get UTG2 out if he has the ace of diamonds when he has just about got the odds to call one bet but not two.
If you raise the flop, the decision whether to fire again on the turn is interesting. I think that villain's stats are pretty aggro and he might be capable of a bluff raise on the turn. On the other hand, I think that he might cap with just about any pair pre-flop so there could be value in betting if he is going to call down. It would be useful to know his WSD stats. On balance I don't like bet/folding against this guy, so check calling to SD seems reasonable.

[bozlax]

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Why do you think he's going to bluffraise? Because he bet when we checked to him?


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Why take the risk?

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[img]http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0NQAAABATAftoGdJSJA2R3gWvlFG6JuCwWbhlXpyRYDnV*QZg! XgvQ2op9hcMEQkMW4qDNNKPUPghRHzPbw*ZMw/krab.jpg[/img]

"Hi, I'm Eugene Krabs, and I LOVE money."

And, srsly, you know the answer, Sushi. You take a chance at folding to an extremely rare bluff-raise because AJ isn't going to call one on the river when it misses; because you don't want to let AJ see the river for free; because you have no reason to believe that he's going to bluff-checkraise, for Shania's sake!

[HermannTL]

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Do you really think that 2.0 is aggro for a guy seeing the flop at this rate?

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Higher VPIP => weaker hands pf => 'AF is higher than it seems'

So, yes I think 2.0 is pretty aggro.

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As you may suspect, the reason I'm asking is that I'm wondering about my aggression; this month my TAF has been 2.73 on a VP$IP of 14.25...and that's coming down a little.

[JSampras1]

The reason i check raised the flop is am i check folding in a capped multiway pot to 1 bet there? That seems incredibly weak. Yeah i might be beat, but i would at least call there just so next time ppl don't try to steal with nothing.

And i believe that the other players will call with MANY more hands for 1 bet than 2 bets. This is 1/2. I would expect any donk with ax, any pp, any pair on the flop to call this for 1 more bet. If i'm calling down anyway, i would rather CR, get it heads up, and lose 1 more bet than risk letting someone overcall with a2 or a7 or something.

Also if one of the limpers calls 2 cold, or 3 bets, then i'm done with the hand because there is 0 chance i beat both of them.

But to the ppl who are saying CR is a bad idea, you are advocating folding to 1 bet in a 13 bet pot for 1 bet there? I just want to understand this?

[TimovieMan]

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But to the ppl who are saying CR is a bad idea, you are advocating folding to 1 bet in a 13 bet pot for 1 bet there? I just want to understand this?

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They are not advocating folding, they are advocating simply calling down, there’s a HUGE difference.

Basic idea is that UTG+2 is likely going to fold to 1 bet as well as he would to 2 bets. He’s only calling preflop, so he’s probably on an implied odds hand. Two guys raising and capping and a K flopping means that, unless he’s on the flush draw or he made a set, he’s drawing dead…
If he made a flush draw, he’s not folding to anything, if he made a set (or two-pair), he’s going to stick with us no matter what. Everything else he’ll fold for 1 bet…

And since we’re either slightly ahead or WAY behind, we don’t want to invest too much into this pot. Hence calling…