weak one card OESD?

[Sushiglutton]

For readability I put the stoves in the bottom. If u have comments on the ranges and/or math,
please respond by making ur own analaysis. I will not make any changes if anyone asks.
By that I don't mean that this analysis is the truth (in fact it is obviously very rough).
I'm sure there are plenty to debate. Just do so by posting ur own work.




SB range: X = {TT-77,AcTc,A9s,Ac6c,KcTc,Kc9c,QcTc,Qc9c,JTs,Jc9c,T8s+ ,T6s,97s+,87s,65s,A9o,JTo,T9o,97o+,87o,65o}

The other twos ranges pf: Y1(14.8% of all hands) = {99-22,AJs-A4s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,AJo-A9o,KJo+,QJo}

What they call a raise with (assuming they overcall entire range): Y2 = {99-66,ATs-A9s,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,KcQc,KcJc,KTs-K9s,QcJc,QTs-Q9s,J9s+,T9s,98s,ATo-A9o}

What they fold vs a raise: Y3(6.9% of all hands) = {55-22,AcJc,Ad8d,Ah8h,As8s,Ad7d,Ah7h,As7s,Ad6d,Ah6h,As 6s,Ad5d,Ah5h,As5s,Ad4d,Ah4h,As4s,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,AJ o,KJo+,QJo}


Our equity vs X and 2*Y3 is 21.148% (ST1).
Our equity vs X and Y3 and Y1 is 18.857% (ST2).
Our equity vs X and Y1 is 20.661% (ST3).
Our equity vs X is 26.274% (ST4).



So by raising we chew up:

(6.9/14.8)^2 * (26.274-21.148) + 2* (6.9/14.8)*(1-6.9)/14.8 * (20.661-18.857) ~= <font color="red"> 0.44% equity </font>

(%both of them have a hand in range Y3)* (the equity we then gain) +
(% one of them in Y1 other one in Y3)* (the equity we then gain)



The conclussion is that the equity we gain by raising is too small compared to the extra bet we put in.

=&gt; Calling is the best play.







ST1
788,202,860 games 23.922 secs 32,948,869 games/sec

Board: 7c 8c 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.857% 14.64% 04.22% 115361749 33271095.50 { AhTd }
Hand 1: 54.583% 51.02% 03.56% 402146635 28077882.67 { TT-77, AcTc, A9s, Ac6c, KcTc, Kc9c, QcTc, Qc9c, JTs, Jc9c, T8s+, T6s, 97s+, 87s, 65s, A9o, JTo, T9o, 97o+, 87o, 65o }
Hand 2: 16.956% 14.95% 02.00% 117874935 15770259.33 { 99-22, AJs-A4s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AJo-A9o, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 3: 09.604% 08.99% 00.61% 70881776 4818527.50 { 55-22, AcJc, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, Ad7d, Ah7h, As7s, Ad6d, Ah6h, As6s, Ad5d, Ah5h, As5s, Ad4d, Ah4h, As4s, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, AJo, KJo+, QJo }



ST2
788,202,860 games 23.922 secs 32,948,869 games/sec

Board: 7c 8c 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.857% 14.64% 04.22% 115361749 33271095.50 { AhTd }
Hand 1: 54.583% 51.02% 03.56% 402146635 28077882.67 { TT-77, AcTc, A9s, Ac6c, KcTc, Kc9c, QcTc, Qc9c, JTs, Jc9c, T8s+, T6s, 97s+, 87s, 65s, A9o, JTo, T9o, 97o+, 87o, 65o }
Hand 2: 16.956% 14.95% 02.00% 117874935 15770259.33 { 99-22, AJs-A4s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AJo-A9o, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 3: 09.604% 08.99% 00.61% 70881776 4818527.50 { 55-22, AcJc, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, Ad7d, Ah7h, As7s, Ad6d, Ah6h, As6s, Ad5d, Ah5h, As5s, Ad4d, Ah4h, As4s, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, AJo, KJo+, QJo }




ST3
12,237,456 games 0.297 secs 41,203,555 games/sec

Board: 7c 8c 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.661% 16.07% 04.59% 1966113 562277.67 { AhTd }
Hand 1: 60.592% 56.72% 03.87% 6940726 474184.67 { TT-77, AcTc, A9s, Ac6c, KcTc, Kc9c, QcTc, Qc9c, JTs, Jc9c, T8s+, T6s, 97s+, 87s, 65s, A9o, JTo, T9o, 97o+, 87o, 65o }
Hand 2: 18.747% 16.78% 01.97% 2052881 241273.67 { 99-22, AJs-A4s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AJo-A9o, KJo+, QJo }





ST4
96,030 games 0.016 secs 6,001,875 games/sec

Board: 7c 8c 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.274% 21.64% 04.64% 20778 4452.50 { AhTd }
Hand 1: 73.726% 69.09% 04.64% 66347 4452.50 { TT-77, AcTc, A9s, Ac6c, KcTc, Kc9c, QcTc, Qc9c, JTs, Jc9c, T8s+, T6s, 97s+, 87s, 65s, A9o, JTo, T9o, 97o+, 87o, 65o }


---

[LukeSLTS]

I would just call the turn here and fold if it two more back to me. If one of them has JT we have 3 outs to half the pot. The only other likely hand is a set or possibly T9.

By the way, I always raise ATo four off the button.

[JJack]

wow so deep analysis
(too compex for me :P)
Is there any book to cover how we can use both math + pokerstove?

[Sushiglutton]

[ QUOTE ]
wow so deep analysis
(too compex for me :P)
Is there any book to cover how we can use both math + pokerstove?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can also say in word what is wrong with raising. Since SB is a LP player he has a tight range betting out. That means our pair outs are too dirty to be worth protecting.

[Bona]

Tyler, I almost always find I've made a mistake when I disagree with you but I'm having trouble this time.

So what is our flop raise supposed to accomplish? Do we want the hands that we beat when we hit to fold here? Do we really think we want to get HU with SB? Is the pot already big enough to be thinking that at this point? Do we think SB might fold to our raise?
All possibilities considered can it really be a value raise?

Wouldn't we need some specific reads to make a raise the best play here? Even then what would those reads have to be?

Sushi posted some maths but they made my head explode and they are all based on ranges that aren't supported by reads. I'm going to look at them again but I doubt I'll figure that out by myself either.

Over all I think even if you (Tyler) are right this is a WAY to thin play for many of us to make even if we had good reads, and we would just end up screwing up a pretty easy hand to play. (As in call and draw so long as we have pot odds.)

[tyler_cracker]

bona,

it's funny because i'm arguing the opposite point in that ATs thread with doug.

take a look at SSH sections "Playing Agressively with Marginal Hands" (p. 148) and "Protecting Draws and Buying Outs" (p. 158).

i think that the extra flop action may be making this hand harder than it is. when it gets to hero the first time, he has a 1-card OESD and two overcards in a 10 sb pot facing a donk. i think of this as a two-way raise: raising sometimes cleans up outs so that we win the pot if an A or a T hits, so in some sense this raise is to "protect" our hand. raising is sometimes for value as we have 8 outs (discount to 7 with the flush draw out there) to a probable best hand.

the only read on sb is "probably LP". while it is worrisome that such a player is donking into us on a massively coordinated board, i see "passive" players do this all the time with flush draws, middle pair, and other garbage against which our hand is in good shape. remember, we raised pf, so obviously we have AK [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

another thing to think about is how many good things can happen when we raise (buying outs, getting free cards) with what happens when we just call (???).

obviously, if we had known that it was going to be 3bet and capped behind us, raising looks pretty silly (and folding even begins to have some merit!), but given what hero knew at the time his window went "BEEP BEEP YOUR TURN BITCH!", i think raising is the best play.

hth.

[Sushiglutton]

Maybe I should give some more explinations so people can repeat.

Step 1:
Put all villains on ranges before our action.

=&gt; X, Y1

Step 2:
Decide which part of their ranges the two guys behind us will give up if we raise but will continue with if we just call.

=&gt; Y3

Step3:
Compute the equity for our hand depending on the ranges we are facing.


Step 4:

Calculate how much our winning chances improve if we raise (that is making hands in range Y3 fold, we remove them). This is the most tricky step. I use this formula:

(6.9/14.8)^2 * (26.274-21.148) + 2* (6.9/14.8)*(1-6.9)/14.8 * (20.661-18.857)


Let me explain the different parts.

(6.9/14.8)^2 = (6.9/14.8)(6.9/14.8) = Probability(MP3 holds a hand he will fold) * Probability(BTN holds a hand he will fold)

Why is that 6.9/14.8? It's the ratio of the hands in the folding range and he ones in the entire range. I here make the simplifying assumption that these two events are independent.


(26.274-21.148): The difference in equity if both calls compare to if they both folds.


(6.9/14.8)^2 * (26.274-21.148): Together we get how much equity we get extra if they both holds Y3 hands and fold them times how often this event will occur.


Now we do the same thing for the event that one of them holds a hand in Y3 (and folds it) and the other one in Y1.

[Bona]

Couple points:

When hero acts on the flop he sees a 5.5 SB pot not 10. I don't know if that changes your perspective or not but I would have thought raising more appropriate (read more profitable the times it works) if we were going after 10.

I do understand your argument although it's hard for me to get radical against unknowns and this may be one of situations I need to play better in order to improve. I will reread that section in SSHE. Thanks for the reference.

The argument about all the good things that can happen when we play aggressively has merit. So does the one that goes something like "we save a few bets by not raising when don't hit our hand"

I'll read that thread with you and Doug. I'm anxious to see you successfully occupying two different spaces simultaneously [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

EDITED TO ADD: Your point about the real time time pressure is a good one and it supports a contention I made in my post. I may have to (and I expect some others in the micros) become a significantly stronger player before I/we can pull off your style of play. The complete spectrum of ramifications don't present themselves to me for instant analysis. If I raised here, evenly correctly, it would have been an unthought out "donkey" play on my part. It's a matter of readiness.

[JJack]

Bona its 5BB so its 10 SB.
My convertor always shows bets like big bets at all steets.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
When hero acts on the flop he sees a 5.5 SB pot not 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

count again.