400/800 badugi hand

[DeathDonkey]

So this hand is sort of read-based but this is the type of thing nobody talks about in this game and if anyone has an opinion it might be useful to talk about...

Good player raises in the CO (wide range but not crap) I 3 bet the button with A27, the fish in the BB coldcalls, CO caps, we both call. He hasn't capped before and I suspect he will be pat, my image is a bit weak tight.

First draw: 2, pat, I take one and brick, he bets, we both call.

Second draw: 1, pat, 1, I promote to A25, how often are you raising here? I feel like this pot is worth fighting for and my assumptions are: if he breaks a hand my A25 will be good for sure (but it doesn't matter because the fish would never coldcall and call the river without a badugi). Can any smart math people guesstimate how good of a hand he needs to fold or break for my raise to be profitable?

-DeathDonkey