QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT

[LCposter]

I posted this in the WSOP forum, but it's a strategy post, so it really belongs here.

Clearly I'm in the minority, but I don't think lead/fold is that terrible on this hand. I really don't think CRAI has much fold equity here with most of Young's possible holdings, so it's not really an aggressive move, but a move to maximize value when ahead. I can understand not wanting to do that when opponent seemed to be rep AA/KK preflop. I think with slow blinds Childs is hoping to wait for the chance to get his chips in with fold equity along with showdown value.

In any case, here was my analysis of the hand. Someone point out where this is off.

Looking at the hand from Yang's point-of-view, why is it so obvious that Childs is weak? He's leading into the preflop aggressor, and it's not a tiny bet (a 60% pot lead OOP into the PFR doesn't seem weak to me at least). If the bet size seems too small, would 3.5-4M be better? In any case, I think the 3M bet is big enough to be scary (looks pretty pot-committing). I think Yang would put Childs on at least TT+/set/big draw (maybe 88/77/66 lead out like this too, but personally I think Childs is check/folding anything under 99).

Against that range, is Yang really going to put his own tourney life on the line with any two? Even if he pegs Childs as weak/tight, he knows only TT/JJ and maybe QQ can fold. Therefore I think the raise here represents JJ+ (with higher weighting towards AA/KK) or a big draw most of the time and trash a small percentage of time.

In order to analyze the flop lead, we have to think about how Childs would play a monster. If he had AA or a set, is he more likely to get all of Yang's chips in on the flop with a 2/3-pot lead or a CRAI? I would argue the former, espcially since everyone here thinks Yang is agressive enough to raise practically any two. Also, there's no guarantee that Yang cbets and then calls the CRAI getting odds. There is a decent chance that with overcards or a draw he might check behind, or with trash he could bet/fold.

Given that Childs played QQ the same way he could play AA or a set, it can't be that bad. Also, if Childs checks, Yang checks behind, and the turn comes A, K, or club (up to 19 possible scare cards) he's just given Yang the best hand or a golden opportunity to bluff and steal the pot.

Calling the flop lead terrible because we saw Yang raise all-in seems results-oriented to me. I think if Childs CRAIs with QQ and Yang flips over AA then Childs is still getting called a donk on the forum.

Overall, what's the consensus? Is donking a dry flop like this automatically bad? Or is the play bad because the pot was too big a percentage of Childs' stack?