Rex Grossman a HOF QB.

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
Silly me to expect to find someone with the ability to logically handicap a sports related prop bet.

Sorry to waste everyone's time. I will be sure to refrain from posting other questions in the future. I apologize for any reduction in time spent at the gym trying to get “cool” so a woman may one day ignore a lack of personality and general failure at life.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please, you're giving people here too much credit. In all seriousness, your OP didn't seem entirely serious. Hopefully the somewhat idiotic responses here helped you see the issue with your bet. If you're the one laying odds on this bet, trying offering 50-1 or 100-1 and see if you can get away with it. I'm not sure your return on such a bet would ever outperform a savings account interest rate, nor am I sure that your friend would pay up whenever the time comes.

If you're the one taking odds on this bet, then you likely deserve responses given thus far in this thread (and I don't mean this in a malicious way).

[domer2]

[ QUOTE ]
Silly me to expect to find someone with the ability to logically handicap a sports related prop bet.

Sorry to waste everyone's time. I will be sure to refrain from posting other questions in the future. I apologize for any reduction in time spent at the gym trying to get “cool” so a woman may one day ignore a lack of personality and general failure at life.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nevermind the fact that you are asking about setting odds for a prop bet which will potentially be undetermined 15 years from right now, I think it is pretty obvious to everyone that Rex Grossman has shown absolutely 0 potential to be a Pro Bowler, let alone a HOFer.

How high do you want to go? 50-1? 100-1? 150-1? Are you really going to collect $20 from him in 2020?

[Homer]

I'd say he has about a 1 in 200 chance. I'd probably donk off some money at +15000 or better because betting on longshots is fun.

[Skipbidder]

The National Football League Hall of Fame? For PLAYING accomplishments? Without regard to opportunity cost of the money or likelihood that you can get paid, I'd put it in the 400-1 or so range. He's 26 years old. He still has the time to do it. He's not ridiculously bad. Something could click. If it does, and he gets to stay with the Bears, then he might see a lot of playoff time. Big playoff wins will improve his stock even if he isn't quite as good as others. The Bears look likely to be a frequent playoff team in the near future at least. No methodology behind the guess.

[Poker_is_Hard]

[ QUOTE ]
The National Football League Hall of Fame? For PLAYING accomplishments? Without regard to opportunity cost of the money or likelihood that you can get paid, I'd put it in the 400-1 or so range. He's 26 years old. He still has the time to do it. He's not ridiculously bad. Something could click. If it does, and he gets to stay with the Bears, then he might see a lot of playoff time. Big playoff wins will improve his stock even if he isn't quite as good as others. The Bears look likely to be a frequent playoff team in the near future at least. No methodology behind the guess.

[/ QUOTE ]
He would need to be inducted into the NFL HOF. The bet would pay off on his induction or the date he's eligibility expires.

Of course if he retires with zero realistic chance the bet will also be settled.

[youtalkfunny]

[ QUOTE ]
If someone gives you 10,000-to-1 odds on anything, you take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I saw a guy jump into the East River once. When they fished him out, they asked him why he jumped into the river. He explained that he had been offered 1,000,000-to-1 odds against jumping over the river, and couldn't pass up that kind of value.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If someone gives you 10,000-to-1 odds on anything, you take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I saw a guy jump into the East River once. When they fished him out, they asked him why he jumped into the river. He explained that he had been offered 1,000,000-to-1 odds against jumping over the river, and couldn't pass up that kind of value.

[/ QUOTE ]

This about sums up my thoughts as well.

[thing85]

FWIW, that's a quote from the Office. I was following up Domer's.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If someone gives you 10,000-to-1 odds on anything, you take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I saw a guy jump into the East River once. When they fished him out, they asked him why he jumped into the river. He explained that he had been offered 1,000,000-to-1 odds against jumping over the river, and couldn't pass up that kind of value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you really questioning the man who won the $2500 no-limit deuce-to-seven draw tournament at the world series of poker in 2002?

[TexML]

And don't forget: he's the drummer for Scrantonicity. That has nothing to do with his handicapping/poker abilities. I just think it's the greatest fake cover band name ever.