Tell me again why I'm not supposed to protect my hand?

[ddubois]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1539
UTG+1: $685
Hero: $761.85
Button: $566.20
SB: $718.70
BB: $600

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $21</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $66</font>, Hero calls $45 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $84)</font>.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($135, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $88</font>, Hero calls $88 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $223)</font>.

It's my understanding that the standard play is just to call here, and hope it goes check/check, check/check. Many straight-forward villains will willingly lie down with AK like this.

But this villain is a tricky and aggressive 2+2er, not straight-forward ABC. I can't trust that he won't two-barrel a blank turn with AK, 77, or any two if he picks up some kind of draw. Also, if I raise flop, I'm also not sure I can trust his 3bet shove to be legit, i.e. he might semi-bluff AK/AQ if he puts me on 99-JJ and thinks I'm good enough to fold it (since I'm extremely unlikely to raise 88 or 22 here).

On the other hand, I hate just calling and letting him suck out on me.

What's the right play on the flop versus this villain? Versus nits? Other?

What's my play on a blank turn? How about a 9? How about a Q? Just give up on an A or K turn, even though those great cards for any two to bluff at?

<font color="#ffffff">Results:
Turn: Qd ($311, 2 players)
BB bets $211, Hero calls $211(pot was $522).

River: As ($733, 2 players)
BB is all-in $235, Hero folds.

Villain claims to have had AQ.</font>

[FireStorm]

Fold the turn. You can't beat anything here and he didn't roll over and die with AK as you thought he might. He is the p/f reraiser and has fired two streets, time to give up when he fires 2/3 of the pot. River, standard fold.

[Jeff W]

Fold turn, why would he two barrel light here? If he is, he's retarded.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
didn't roll over and die with AK as you thought he might

[/ QUOTE ]
You misread my post.

[PatInTheHat]

I still like folding turn vs this villian. You can go ahead and gambool if you think your read is solid but I just pick a better spot.

[billyjex]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold turn, why would he two barrel light here? If he is, he's retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

it sounds like a profitable bet if hero is folding 99-JJ

[Jamougha]

I was villain.

Given the stacks and pot size here you more-or-less need to work out whether I expect you to call or fold with 99-JJ here. If I expect you to call then I'm value betting, if I expect you to fold then I'm bluffing. Here I thought that you would call.

[jrbick]

[ QUOTE ]
I was villain.

Given the stacks and pot size here you more-or-less need to work out whether I expect you to call or fold with 99-JJ here. If I expect you to call then I'm value betting, if I expect you to fold then I'm bluffing. Here I thought that you would call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why it is so hard to respond to threads that don't provide OP's image and/or what villain probably think of OP (provided from history w/ opponent).

[ddubois]

I'm bumping this example because the topic keeps re-occurring as it did in this thread. Also, because people commented mostly on the turn play, not the questions posed about the plan at the time of the flop.

What do ya'll think the typical aggressive re-stealer can have here? jfish suggested I re-steal with something like { QQ+, A5s+, KJs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AKo+ } while maybe calling with { AQ, 66-JJ }, but in reality the typical player has less of the former, and more of the latter, in their range. Let's say { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, AQo+ }; sound reasonable?

Group 1: We're drawing to two outs against {88, AA-JJ}, 27 combos.
Group 2: They are drawing to two or three outs occasionally, when they have {99, 77, A9s-ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, 98s}, 27 combos.
Group 3: They are drawing to five/six outs with { AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AQo+ }, 60 combos.

So we're ahead right now 1/4 of the time. If we raise to 220 right now, I have to think we will win the 223 pot far more than half the time. I say this because I'm assuming it's extremely unlikely he floats/make moves with a full ~30 combos of worse hands. If he only floats say, 16 combos (AK), we'll win 71% of the time right now, for an immediate profit of $90... even if we clicked auto-fold after our bet.

Granted, we'll win $223 if it goes check/check, check/check, but how often will that happen? At best 58% of the time, because he'll be ahead right now 23% of the time, and he'll be behind and improve roughly 19% of the time. That 58% is assuming he never decides to bluff some scary A/K/Q card that didn't actually improve him, if he does get us to fold the best hand on a later street, the EV of calling goes down further. %58 of the pot is $129, so that looks favorable vs. $90 for raising. However, that ignores what happens the 42% of the time we 1) are behind now, or 2) are ahead now, but get sucked out on. In those cases, we will frequently call one more street (as I did in this hand, uncertain how much to fear the Q). %42 of a turn or river bet will be about $90... although that $90 should be adjusted down by the frequency we call. Let's say we pay him off half of the time, for $45.

Now, this is heinously simplified, but for the most common cases where no Ts peel and no bluffing occurs, I might guess the EV of raising is about +$90, and the EV of calling is about +129 (portion of pot) -88 (to call) -45 (reverse implied odds) = -$4.

Obviously I ignored a million What If scenarios. What if we raise flop to induce a bluff from AK, then call his push? What if he bluffs the river and we call? What if we fold? What if we spike a T? What if we re-bluff... or think we are bluffing but aren't? What if we fold to his value bet, dodging the $95 call surcharge? What if he bluffs the turn, but then improves on the river? Or would have had we called? What if we call a second barrel, then fold to a third?

PS: I wonder if one of the simulation softwares could tackle this scenario for any meaningful results?

[Archetype]

I like the flop call (raising would obviously commit you), but fold the turn to any further aggression. A 2+2'er would not be stupid enough to two-barrel with 77 or AK in this spot.