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  #541  
Old 10-18-2007, 09:10 PM
NoahSD NoahSD is offline
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Default Re: AP current CEO?

For the media and the investigation, we shouldn't forget to mention the other accounts in addition to potripper. Potripper is the most amazing and the one we have most details on, but the others are really obviously related.
  #542  
Old 10-18-2007, 09:11 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Default Re: AP current CEO?

From the Wizard of Odds article:
[ QUOTE ]
"In that tournament POTRIPPER played 41 hands, with an average of six players at the table. Assuming all players were equally skilled, and I admit that is a big assumption, he would expect to win 7.28 hands."

[/ QUOTE ]
How should he not expect to win (1/6) * 41 times? This is 6.83, not 7.28.

Later in the article:
[ QUOTE ]
"Of these 93 hands, POTRIPPER won 56 times, in an average 8.13 players per hand. Assuming all players are equally skilled you would expect 11.49 wins."

[/ QUOTE ]
Again, (1/8.13) * 93 is 11.44, not 11.49.

Am I retarded?
  #543  
Old 10-18-2007, 09:14 PM
egj egj is offline
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Default Re: AP current CEO?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Digg it peeps [deleted]

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think this could backfire, as his statistical assumptions are completely off-base. I used to work for a statistical consulting firm that worked on gigiantic trials for lots of money. We would destroy his argument in 10 seconds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are his arguments that bad? Please say how.
  #544  
Old 10-18-2007, 09:17 PM
zen_rounder zen_rounder is offline
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Default Re: AP current CEO?

anybody heard anything from other sites about their stance on security issues ect. since kahnawake liscences most of the major ones..
  #545  
Old 10-18-2007, 09:19 PM
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Default Re: AP current CEO?

egj, read the post earlier in this thread about the WOO article. The Wizard is assuming straight odds if hands go to showdown. A maniac will win way more than his fair share of hands by sheer aggression. Like I said I won 15 hands in a row one time by open shoving every hand in a freeroll I didn't care about. By his methodology the odds of that working are probably something astronomical. But I bet I could do it again with a few tries.
  #546  
Old 10-18-2007, 09:25 PM
aaronbeen aaronbeen is offline
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Default Re: AP current CEO?

re: wizard of odds

1) There's no reason why a player should expect to win a number of pots equal to the number of hands divided by avg number players. The more pots a player enters the more he wins. A 89%+ VPIP player is supposed to win a lot of pots, he's just also supposed to lose all his money back in the pots he loses.

2) He's ignoring background probability/not defining his events properly. You could use the same types of arguments to claim that the chances of any compound sequence of unlikely events is a miracle. Start with a list of lightning strikes and calculate how likely it was that lightning struck location one at time one AND location two at time two etc.

edit: right suzzer
  #547  
Old 10-18-2007, 09:25 PM
augie_ augie_ is offline
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Default Re: AP current CEO?

[ QUOTE ]
By his methodology the odds of that working are probably something astronomical.

[/ QUOTE ]

dude they are! how did everyone lay down 15 hands in a row
  #548  
Old 10-18-2007, 09:28 PM
happyhappyhappy happyhappyhappy is offline
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Default Re: AP current CEO?

From FCP:

[ QUOTE ]
[quote name='cwik' date='Thursday, October 18th, 2007, 9:18 PM' post='2201691']
Alright, some pretty crazy [censored].

I was just talking to a friend of mine who plays heavily at Absolute Poker (he would rather be left nameless) about the recent POTRIPPER scandal. He does not post/read any internet forums, and was unaware of the situation. After linking him to a couple of the summaries, he had some very interesting things to add.

When I mentioned that people had linked Scott Tom, the former CEO, to the case, he immediately recognized the name, and said he knew the guy. He had sat at a table roughly 5-6 months ago, where a guy claimed to be Scott Tom, and wanted him to test the new AP 8.0 software. This guy seemed to know a lot about him (email, location, first name, deposit history), and even put $300 in my friends account to prove he was from AP (by credit adjustment, not deposit/transfer). He also emailed him the new software from this email address: stom@fiducix.com.

Just to make sure my friend contacted AP support to see if this guy was legit. The email re received back might break this case wide open:
Thank you for contacting us.

We contacted our promotions department and they informed us that steamroller belongs to the Absolute Poker Staff. For this reason, what he offered you is in legit.

Good luck at our tables.

Thanks for playing at Absolute Poker! If there is anything else we can help you with, please let us know. We are here for you!

Sincerely,

Aaron
Team Absolute ~ Customer Support
"To Continue to be the Best and Most Trusted"
Support@AbsolutePoker.Com

We’re Here To Stay! All Players Welcome!

Come and join the action this weekend with our 150k guaranteed on Saturday and 60k on Sunday! With more and bigger guaranteedtournaments, Absolute Poker is your place to play. See you at the tables whenever, wherever!

This email directly links the Steamroller account directly to AP and Scott Tom. It leaves little question that the all the accounts that had been suspected to cheat in the cash games are connected. But does not answer how AP could have investigated these accounts and found nothing suspicious.


[/ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poke...;#entry2201691
  #549  
Old 10-18-2007, 09:30 PM
Dyzalot Dyzalot is offline
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Default Re: AP current CEO?

Wouldn't those odds be correct if we are assuming everyone, including potripper, played optimally? He did say that he was assuming everyone has the same skill level for the purpose of his odds calculation..
  #550  
Old 10-18-2007, 09:31 PM
runout_mick runout_mick is offline
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Default Re: AP current CEO?

wow
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