Absolute Poker Scandal: An Inside Job

[aaronbeen]

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Why did he dump rather than xfer if he owns the site?

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It could be that even the CEO doesn't have the power to allow tranfers. When I sent 5 figures to people on AP I had to talk to a specific guy on the phone and after talking to him it took him some work to send the money through. I've sent large sums in the past on PokerStars and I was informed that it was impossible to do in one chunk, security and I had to do 10k at a time.

[0evg0]

Scott
"$ PureMoney $"

Male
34 years old
CANTON, MICHIGAN
United States



Last Login: 12/28/2006

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Philip


Male
32 years old
Canton, Baltimore, Maryland
United States



Last Login: 10/16/2007

[Alobar]

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Why did he dump rather than xfer if he owns the site?

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maybe a 6 figure transfer wouldnt go under the radar but a 6 figure chip dump would. I dont think anyone can say tho because wed have to have inside knowledge of the way AP works, and we dont. Looks like the cheaters did tho, so I think it must have been what they considered the best way to get the money where they wanted it.

[orange]

Guys,
Not sure if I saw this previous page, but what are your estimated repercussions on AP? If this goes widespread (as it is now), what will become of AP and its users? How will it affect UB? (Just wondering, I have some money on AP that I'm trying to get off).

[Dudd]

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Scott
"$ PureMoney $"

Male
34 years old
CANTON, MICHIGAN
United States



Last Login: 12/28/2006

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Philip


Male
32 years old
Canton, Baltimore, Maryland
United States



Last Login: 10/16/2007

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Those are two different states though.

[Alobar]

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I think this pretty much shows that when that dude claimed mark seif could see his hole cards he wasn't lying and that has been my gut feeling all alone. Seif is apparently Scott Tom's boy.


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theres no evidence at all with anything involving mark seif, just one guy who was getting his ass kicked in one HU session.


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He wasn't lying in that post. He was genuinely shocked and confused at how mark seif could open fold to him in a capped pot pre when he flopped a full house. Sure it is one story but he wasn't lying. That is what happened from that guys perspective and the timeline is very convenient. Mark Seif obviously has a very close personal relationship with potripper and co.


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1 hand isn't evidence sir

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In context, it can be. Consider the following assumptions:

1: Mark Seif is a professional poker player.
2: Mark Seif's friend and co-founder of AP is known to have access to a super-user account that can see all hole cards.
3: Mark Seif is playing a high stakes heads-up limit match, and open-folds the flop in a preflop capped hand when his opponent flopped a boat (details please).

Open folding like this in a random pro match might happen 1/100 times at most. In a match where the folder is exploiting a super user we would expect it to happen very often when the opponent flops a strong hand.

Given what we know, what is the most likely cause of the open fold?

I would say even this one piece of anectdotal evidence given the circumstances is about as strong as a polygraph. Not strong enough to convict - but should raise an extremely high level of suspicion.

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I'm sorry, but your reasoning here is 100% FOS

Mark Seif open folded, it happens, it's happened to me when I've had a good hand and a bad hand. Seif lost money in these games, seems weird he'd do that if he was a superuser...

Lets not get all dilute the importance of this thread with half-assed speculation

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yeah, this seif [censored] needs to stop. Yes we all know it would be even more awesome if seif was involved because people dont like him, and it would be even greater publicity/awesomeness for a name pro to be involved. But there isnt any evidence, and all this trying to make it fit stuff is just bringing down all the other solid work thats been done here.

That whole HU match can be explained plenty of other ways. Seif says BRB cuz he had to go take a [censored], then he comes back and says hes ready to crush him now, cuz hes a big [censored] talker and thats what [censored] talkers do. He's on tilt and goes on a hot streak. Ive open folded plenty of times even after raising PF when im on tilt, so this one time the other guy had a big hand. big deal, varience. Without any other evidence or data there is NOTHING here that links whats going on in this thread, with that incident, other than coincidence

[Zorglub]

would Scott Tom have an interest in AP going broke since he made it so obvious?

[admiralfluff]

I'm sorry, but you're taking this personally.

I stated clearly that this evidence is not conclusive. I stated clearly that open-folding happens randomly in heads up games, though not that often.

What is clear is that our (now) prior knowledge increases the probability (does not prove) that the open fold in this case was not a random event, but caused by the use of a super user account. In my opinion, based on estimations of open-fold rates, estimations of Mark and Scott's relationship, and estimations of the context of the original story, I would guess the likelihood of the open-fold being a random event to be less than 5% (The actual figure could be way off, but it is certainly much lower than the likelihood in abscence of the prior knowledge).

I'm not saying 'Seif is guilty'. I'm saying the knowledge we now have increases the likelihood he is, but there is still reasonable doubt (sources listed by Alobar).

This clearly struck a personal nerve with you, and it was not my intention to do so. I would welcome thought out, statistically founded counterarguments, but 'your reasoning is FOS' isn't really productive.

[Dids]

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would Scott Tom have an interest in AP going broke since he made it so obvious?

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There is a line I like that I may or may not have made up.

"Never assume conspiracy when incompetence is a more likely answer"

We have plenty of evidence (his spam posts mostly) that the guy is a doorknob. I think that makes it far more likely that they're just THAT DUMB than this is some masterful byzantine plot to take over AP/the poker world/2p2/Mason's pants.

[N 82 50 24]

One interesting sidenote in the Seif/Tom relationship.

The only record of Scott Tom (if he was on scott@rivieraltd.com) is opening up table 9 for like 20 seconds. He never opened up table 13, which was POTRIPPER's table as an *observer*.

Coincidentally, Mark Seif was playing in the event on table 9.

So that does tell me they were friends and that there's a good chance Scott Tom was controlling the 363/scott@rivieraltd.com accounts.

At least it's the simplest explanation for why he opened up table 9 briefly.

EDIT: None of that means he was involved in cheating, but I am pretty confident he had a friendship with Scott Tom and that Scott was controlling those computers