Live 3/6 TT on the BTN / Potawatomi

[BigAlChicago]

From last weekend. This hand has been haunting me all week, but my memory of the details is somewhat sketchy. It was early in my session, so no solid reads on the players, but assume all are generally LP. (When the board paired on the flop, I wouldn't expect any aggression from someone who flopped trips generally until the turn.)

Four limpers to me on the button and I wake up with the two black 10's. The BB and the four limpers all come along for my raise.

The flop was 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

The BB bets out 2 calls and 2 folds. Question #1, what is your plan? Do you call and wait for a safe card on the turn to pop this again? (Other than the 3 non- [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2's and the two other 10's, are there any safe cards?)

Turn 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

This gets checked to the third player to act who donks. What do you do now? (Assumed you either flat called the flop 7.5 BB after rake to the turn or raised the flop and the other three players called -- 9.5 BB after the rake.)

So, two main questions. What do you on that flop? And what do you do when 3 to the straight flush on the paired board hits and there is new aggression in front of you?

[Befolder]

You're in a pretty tough marginal spot. This could be one of those cases where you're better off waiting for the turn to protect, but we didn't get a safe card.

Tough one...

If I can call down for one bet on the turn and river, I may try to do so against this crowd, but expect to see a seven or a flush. If there is any raising, I'm out.

[TheCount212]

Fold. Best case scenario you have 4 outs (77TT). Worst case scenario you have only 2 (TT). This board calls for pessimism.

[BigAlChicago]

What would be a safe card on the turn?

I counted 5: the two tens that fill us up, and the three 2's that don't complete the flush draw. Any of the other cards in the deck put at least an overcard to our pair or 3 to the straight, not to mention that any heart completes the flush draw. So we are getting a "safe" card roughly 10% of the time.

[Christian_Peters]

This is a tough spot indeed.

The pot is 9BB. I think I could find a fold against passive players here.

Otherwise, you call here and look for a reason to fold, i.e. fold the turn or the river if someone raises, fold the river if another heart comes.

Still, I don't think your hand is good here 10% of the time given the action and the board, and you have RIO's. I would normally fold this.

[Christian_Peters]

[ QUOTE ]
What would be a safe card on the turn?



[/ QUOTE ]
The non-heart overcards J, Q, or K aren't too bad. Any A obviously sucks. A non-heart 8 or nine isn't too bad because it gives you a redraw to a str8. A non-heart 2 or 3, and even a 4 isn't awful.

The 5 of hearts was one of the worst cards to come off the deck; other really scary cards would have been A hearts, 4 hearts, or any 6.

I think you can fold this and feel good about the fold, your hand isn't good often enough.

[SeaEagle]

I don't think this is too tough of a flop fold, only getting 13-1. Only the two Ts can make you feel good here. With sb betting out into 5 people and 2 of them calling, you're either already way behind or trying to dodge about 75% of the deck not to get way behind.

After the turn card and action, you have to fold. There's a small chance that the bettor (he's not a donker since he hasn't previously checked) is betting into 3 people on the scariest board ever with less than trips but, really, we're talking small chance. And there's nothing worse than calling this when you know you really shouldn't only to get c/red by the sb...

[BigAlChicago]

I never knew that donk only referred to a bet after a check. In any event, the turn bettor had not previously shown aggression, as he merely limped pre-flop and called the flop bet(s).

[earlytimes1]

I'd raise the flop. You said the table is LP, and on a coordinated board like this, a lot of worse hands than yours will call.

If you're beaten, the subsequent action will make it a lot easier to decipher, and your flop raise will often result in the turn getting checked to you, even by a made straight or flush looking to C/R, allowing you to see the river and often showdown for just one bet.

[BigAlChicago]

OK...say we raised the flop. When the 5 hits and we get the bet from a new party, what do we do on the turn? We might barely have the odds to call with a 4-outer, and that assumes no one is check raising behind. If someone has trip 7's, we are drawing to two outer. Is this a clear fold? Or do we call on the basis that we are still good enough of the time and have some outs for the times we are not?