Bad Beat Index

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
After a terrible run, I started keeping data of my all in PF bets. I've compiled data in this format:
Hand:XXx VS XXs X% W/L/T


[/ QUOTE ]

I do something like this where I compute my "suckout ratio" which is (won-lost)/(won+lost) where won and lost are how many that went against the "expected" result. It's nice to be able to see that there are some numbers to back up your feeling that you are losing every coinflip.

I suggest also keeping track of:
Hands you pushed and won the blinds with.
Hands you open pushed.
Hands you called allin.
Hands you (re)raised allin.

Search for previous posts by Guthrie and myself on this topic.
Pay no attention to the guys on heaters who are telling you this is not worth doing.
It can be very theraputic.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
After a terrible run, I started keeping data of my all in PF bets. I've compiled data in this format:
Hand:XXx VS XXs X% W/L/T

For example:
AKc 67s 60% L
QJo A2o 44% L
...

I only take data when I'm all in preflop and the hand winds up 2 handed. So, I raise with AA, and I get 1 caller. Flop comes 2 6 K, and lose to a set of 6's, data is NOT included, since I wasnt all in preflop.

Maybe I should have had a plan before I did this, but what do I do with all this info? Does anyone see a flaw in my data collection, for instance should I keep track if im the raiser or caller?

At the end of it all, i'd like to have an index number, such as -7.45 which means I was running poorly, or +12.38, and I was running well, and dont get cocky.

[/ QUOTE ]

A much better use of time would be to buy SNGPT and put all your pushes and all-in calls into it. Assign the villain a range of hands and see if your all-in was +EV. If it was then you shouldn't worry about a thing. If it wasn't, then there is some cause for concern.

Don't worry about how you're "running", it's counter productive and doesn't accomplish anything.

[aujoz]

What exactly are you intending on doing with the number at the end of it?

If a good run makes you "cocky" there are probably better solutions - like getting some life experience.

If it is to tell a poker player, they'll think you're silly for wasting your time on useless info.

If it is to tell a non-poker player, they'll think you're silly for wasting your time on poker.

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
What exactly are you intending on doing with the number at the end of it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Using it to reassure yourself that your play is still good when you have a signifigant losing streak. So you dont change your game or go chasing nonexistant leaks. Allin suckouts/the suckout ratio have a strong correlation with winning/losing sessions.

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
There are two (2) problems with the concept of collecting data to prove that I am the most unlucky poker player that ever lived:

1.) It won't change anything
2.) I will continue to play anyway
[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]


#2 is the best

[Prodigy54321]

wouldn't you need to consider the position that you are in when you win or lose as well...this doesn't go against the ICM does it...I mean...this whole index is considering deviations from the norm and losing an abnormal amount of coinflips for example on the bubble would be no exception right??

[BradleyT]

I don't get why everyone jumps out and says this data is useless. If the OP ISN'T running bad and is still losing then obviously he has some major leaks somewhere else.

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
wouldn't you need to consider the position that you are in when you win or lose as well...this doesn't go against the ICM does it...I mean...this whole index is considering deviations from the norm and losing an abnormal amount of coinflips for example on the bubble would be no exception right??

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what you are trying to say here.
I doesn't go against ICM.
You should lose as many coinflips as you win.. In the long run.
You should be ahead when you push more often than not.
You can measure all these things.