50: Overcards and NFD. I thought about folding, calling, and pushing.

[Ron Burgundy]

UTG is 20/1.9/1.5 after 50 hands, MP1 unknown.


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $19.50
BB: $23.60
<font color="black">UTG: $30.80</font>
UTG+1: $44.75
<font color="black">MP1: $7.75</font>
MP2: $108.30
<font color="black">Hero (MP3): $58.35</font>
CO: $136.10
BTN: $9.10

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $2, MP2 folds, Hero calls $2, 4 folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($6.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $6.75</font>, MP1 calls all-in for $5.75, Hero...

[jhill3535]

I don't like PreFlop but on the flop you are getting direct odds of 6.75 to win 19.25, 2.85-1.

It really appears that UTG has a large PP here, your A is likely to be an out against him, but the MP1 is completely unknown. He could have a set already but that is unlikely.

If you give yourself an average of 9 outs on this hand (sometimes your ace maybe good, sometimes the 3 of hearts is not an out, then you about 35% to win or a little less than a 2-1 dog to improve by the river.

If you shove and UTG folds you are in great shape. If you shove and UTG calls you are getting odds of 28.80 to win 40.55 or about 1.4-1 on the shove, which is no where near the odds you need to make a shove here profitable.

[superpokermon]

I probably just call here, and hope he doesn't pot it again on the turn (unless it's a heart.)

The problem with a shove is that it looks like he has an overpair to the board...most NL50 players can't fold overpairs in this spot. And UTG isn't playing a full stack, which also increases his calling frequency to your shove.

[Miyogi]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like PreFlop but on the flop you are getting direct odds of 6.75 to win 19.25, 2.85-1.

It really appears that UTG has a large PP here, your A is likely to be an out against him, but the MP1 is completely unknown. He could have a set already but that is unlikely.

If you give yourself an average of 9 outs on this hand (sometimes your ace maybe good, sometimes the 3 of hearts is not an out, then you about 35% to win or a little less than a 2-1 dog to improve by the river.

If you shove and UTG folds you are in great shape. If you shove and UTG calls you are getting odds of 28.80 to win 40.55 or about 1.4-1 on the shove, which is no where near the odds you need to make a shove here profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often would UTG need to fold to make this play profitable?

[jhill3535]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like PreFlop but on the flop you are getting direct odds of 6.75 to win 19.25, 2.85-1.

It really appears that UTG has a large PP here, your A is likely to be an out against him, but the MP1 is completely unknown. He could have a set already but that is unlikely.

If you give yourself an average of 9 outs on this hand (sometimes your ace maybe good, sometimes the 3 of hearts is not an out, then you about 35% to win or a little less than a 2-1 dog to improve by the river.

If you shove and UTG folds you are in great shape. If you shove and UTG calls you are getting odds of 28.80 to win 40.55 or about 1.4-1 on the shove, which is no where near the odds you need to make a shove here profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often would UTG need to fold to make this play profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not exactly sure on how to do the math, but I think this is close to right: Since you have about 35% estimated equity we can profitably call up to $14 to win a $40.55 pot, so we need 14-40.55 and we are getting 28.8-40.55, so I would say that we need him to fold a little more than half the time, say 55% of the time to make it profitable.