NL$200| TPTK push

[Acevader]

Villain in the hand is 53/22/0.87(110) Normally a loose preflop caller with very passive post-flop tendancies sets alarm bells off when he raises but there is another key factor to consider. About 30 minutes before he had been SS at $80 and beat my AA with 44 when he flopped a set. He didn't raise on the flop so I figured that a set here would likely be played the same (especially as flop is miles from my range). I was therefore happy to include a TPGK and TPNK in his range and also figure he'd call with a wide range of TP hands as well. He certainly was felting a few questionable hands! Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

SB: $584.25
BB: $205.95
UTG: $39.05
Hero (MP): $189
CO: $368.25
BTN: $228.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt Td Ad (6 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $8, CO calls $8, 3 folds

Flop: ($19) Ts 4d 3h (2 Players)
Hero bets $15, CO raises to $47, Hero raises all-in to $181, CO calls $134

Turn: ($381) 8s (2 Players - 1 All-In)

River: ($381) 7h (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $381 ($3 Rake)

[synbad13]

....
Nothing seems very clear to me.

Here's a general rant.
PF - Seems fine.
Flop - Feels like top pair with a weaker kicker, 56 (if he's looser Post Flop than you expressed) or JJ are in his cold-calling range. Your description of him post-flop does not make it seem like he would RR with K10 (feels like he would just call).

This is very player/read/moment (that last few hands) dependent. If he has the capacity to put his chips in there with a worse 10, then you probably have odds to get in there.

Calling feels safe, but maybe too weak. If he's going to play this hand in an aggressive manner, then you would have gotten it AI on the turn anyways.

These feels kind of gross if he plays passive postflop, but we can't discount him making bad decisions.

If I were to put him on a hand, I would put him on JJ based upon his post-flop aggression.

[Acevader]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling feels safe, but maybe too weak. If he's going to play this hand in an aggressive manner, then you would have gotten it AI on the turn anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Something I rarely do. If I call here I'm trapping usually or have already decided that I'll call all/any bets no matter turn and river.

Going to assume he plays sets the same so doesn't have that so I'll do a simple look at my hand vs this range: A10,K10,Q10,J10,34,109,108,AA-JJ. I don't think a passive raises a semi here (56).

Right, that lot figures out to be 60/40 my favour so a clear favourite for a push if he calls with all those.

Adding sets in = 55/45 my favour
Keep sets drop 109,108 = 1% his favour
Dropping J10 and Q10 and its 64% to him and 36% to me.

If he calls my push my final pot equity is 47% so it's +EV against all but that final refinement to his range. Note I've taken zero account of fold equity (mainly cause I don't know villian well enough to estimate it). I think with the info from the AA vs 44 hand this isn't as bad a push as I thought.

[phantom_lord]

53/22/0.87?

I'd just fold to his raise.

[Adelson]

Fold to the flop raise. He has an AF of 0.87, so he's relatively passive postflop. The only draw out is 56s, which may be in his range given his preflop numbers, but more than likely, you're facing a set here.

[Acevader]

adelson have you read the history of the way he played a set just 10 minutes earlier? Have you also read the breakdown of my equity vs his range(s)? I don't disagree with your analysis of his passive style but there is a mitigating factor here.

Result

Villain had KK and I didn't improve. Against his actual hand it was -$81 EV. I'm comforted by the anaylsis of my hand vs the range AA-1010,33,44,34,A10,K10,Q10 and J10 which is +EV with no account for fold equity.