Check my math

[Propping Fool]

where am I going wrong ?

I am trying to figure the prob I will place 3rd in a 6man sng. The FAQ showed me how to figure 1st and 2nd.

b = my stack
t = total tournament chips

o1 = opponent1's stack
o2 = opponent2's stack etc etc
o3
o4
o5


(b / (t - (o1 + o2)(o1+o2 / t) +
(b / (t - (o1 + o3)(o1+o3 / t) +
(b / (t - (o1 + o4)(o1+o4 / t) +
(b / (t - (o1 + o5)(o1+o5 / t) +
(b / (t - (o2 + o3)(o3+o3 / t) +
(b / (t - (o2 + o4)(o2+o4 / t) +
(b / (t - (o2 + o5)(o2+o5 / t) +
(b / (t - (o3 + o4)(o3+o4 / t) +
(b / (t - (o3 + o5)(o3+o5 / t) +
(b / (t - (o4 + o5)(o4+o5 / t) +

clearly math is not my thing
I am way off base, but I am stumped
ty

[pzhon]

First, you are trying to do the ICM calculation. You should state that, since the ICM is not the only model. (It is the simplest.)

Second, the terms you want look like
(o1/t) (o2/(t-o1)) (b/(t-(o1+o2))) + (o2/t) (o1/(t-o2)) (b/(t-(o1+o2))). You can descripe this in words as the probability opponent 1 wins, time the probability opponent 2 is second given that opponent 1 wins, times the probability you are third given that opponents 1 and 2 are first and second, etc.

Third, if you just want to do a few SNG calculations, you will probably find it easier to use this web calculator.

[Propping Fool]

thxs alot phzon, needed that for school