Raise Size NLTRN

[how_can_losing?]

Nicho,

Shoving/raising will "extract the maximum" against top pair hands (and hands that beat you, but I assume you are not folding this no matter what). I don't think there is much difference whether you shove or raise smaller. How often do your villains fold top pair here to a reraise/shove?

You probably are not going to extract the max from second pair unless you call the flop and bet ~half pot on the turn if he checks. He may even bet the turn for you.

If he has a gutshot or oesd I agree with what TNixon said--some donks will call a small raise with a gutshot. IME, however, these are not the same donks who c/r with a gutshot. They like to c/c. IME villains also do not c/r with OESD.

So, I think the possibility of a draw is smaller than the possibility of top pair/2nd pair/hands that beat you. I think that the probability of a scare card coming is small (although when I run bad they always come, right?).

So I think the best line is as mentioned above, call flop and shove over turn, as he is more likely to bet the turn than not (unless he had a hand that was never calling a raise/shove anyway).

I won't go into scenarios with unknowns who might be weird enough to call all in with 2nd pair etc. on the flop, because you will probably get it all in at some point anyway.