MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)

[ImsaKidd]

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Hey Guys:I would be interested to see some pokerEV graphs. There is a thread in the software forum about it. BBV has a thread too.

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Quote from program's author : "Limit players in particular will get less use out of these calcs."


This is of course, the high stakes limit forum...

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I was interested to see what kind of deviation the calcs had for your hands compared to NL guys.

[Robin Foolz]

lol at the jealousy in this thread.

the guy supplies a graph of a healthy winrate over a 600k sample size yet he's considered some donkey running hot.

nice read hock. inspiring really.

[tommyboy83]

ive been playing online poker around the same amount of time as schneids and i played with him quite a bit in the 100 200 to 150 300 pound games on crypto and, im actually in same ballpark as him where ive only experienced downswings of around 300 BB's in roughly a million hands of limit hold em, and a lot of that was from 3 handed play, i think with solid play and a lot of experience a lot more players can do this but there are so many people who just tend to spew left and right when they're running bad or stuck or they are playing in a game that is above there heads, most people are too stubborn or have to big of an ego to look at this or try to find other reasons for their losing ways and long droughts of winning sessions.

[AlexSem]

tommy what games have you been playing for the past year?

it's out of question that the aggressiveness in games has SKYROCKETED.

so has variance. so the passive tight good games you played back in the day and experienced a 300BB downswing? doesn't tell us much. I didn't swing more than 300BB for almost 2 years and since then, I've had so many swings I'm doing good one month, the next I can hardly afford to play 50/100. not to say I'm not a big fish and I just deserve it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[kahntrutahn]

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I didn't swing more than 300BB for almost 2 years and since then, I've had so many swings I'm doing good one month, the next I can hardly afford to play 50/100. not to say I'm not a big fish and I just deserve it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I'll give you one thing, you have determination

[Micturition Man]

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tommy what games have you been playing for the past year?

it's out of question that the aggressiveness in games has SKYROCKETED.

so has variance. so the passive tight good games you played back in the day and experienced a 300BB downswing? doesn't tell us much. I didn't swing more than 300BB for almost 2 years and since then, I've had so many swings I'm doing good one month, the next I can hardly afford to play 50/100. not to say I'm not a big fish and I just deserve it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I really don't think the aggressiveness is the issue, I think the issue is playing in games where you have a lower EV.

It seems like a lot of you guys play in games where you have an EV of around 1 bb per 100, which by my standards at least indicates terrible game selection and that you are probably -EV in a lot of the lineups you play.

I basically agree with Tommy. Anything's possible but if you are reasonably game selective these ~1000 BB type downswings should be extremely rare.

And the game selection thing is not just a matter of appetite for risk. If you're playing in games where your EV is 1 BB per 100, unless the only game you play is LHE it's almost guaranteed there is a more profitable game somewhere else.

[tommyboy83]

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tommy what games have you been playing for the past year?

it's out of question that the aggressiveness in games has SKYROCKETED.

so has variance. so the passive tight good games you played back in the day and experienced a 300BB downswing? doesn't tell us much. I didn't swing more than 300BB for almost 2 years and since then, I've had so many swings I'm doing good one month, the next I can hardly afford to play 50/100. not to say I'm not a big fish and I just deserve it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I really don't think the aggressiveness is the issue, I think the issue is playing in games where you have a lower EV.

It seems like a lot of you guys play in games where you have an EV of around 1 bb per 100, which by my standards at least indicates terrible game selection and that you are probably -EV in a lot of the lineups you play.

I basically agree with Tommy. Anything's possible but if you are reasonably game selective these ~1000 BB type downswings should be extremely rare.

And the game selection thing is not just a matter of appetite for risk. If you're playing in games where your EV is 1 BB per 100, unless the only game you play is LHE it's almost guaranteed there is a more profitable game somewhere else.

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ive been multitabling no limit and i took a shot at the 1k 2k horse game, my edge wasnt what i thought it was so i cut my losses, the limit hold em games dont seem to be as good as they used to and id rather be game selective and find a better hourly rate elsewhere (ie, o8, stud8, no limit) than stick it out in relatively pretty tough hold em games, thats part of what i attribute to never having such a big downswing, if hock is going to play when hes tilting and/or playing against competent players that know how to play back at him, he is going to see these kind of downswings, what im saying is that if u are pretty selective about the types of players ur playing against and/or are able to step away when ur playing bad u shouldnt see these type of swings even if the games are relatively pretty tough, game selection is huge when it comes to limit hold em and if ur gonna play games that are really tough in a time when big fish from the USA cant put money online anymore u are prone to see these type of swings especially when making relatively loose call downs on an frequent basis. 4/5 tabling 30 60 can very easily have the same EV as 2 tabling 100 200 but most ppl are too stubborn to play a game with less variance and recieve the same hourly.

[Fitzcat]

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the guy supplies a graph of a healthy winrate over a 600k sample size yet he's considered some donkey running hot.

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There's a big difference between "some donkey" and "he makes some mistakes". Think how "healthy" his winrate would be if he didn't often make [censored] plays like those posted in this thread. (And he does do that, and it is often.)

Me, I most admire his work ethic. I sure wish I had played 600k hands over that time.

[Schneids]

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it's out of question that the aggressiveness in games has SKYROCKETED.

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I glossed over this the first time I read it, but really, you have no clue what games were like at high stakes 2-3 years ago.

2-3 years ago on Interpoker, if you were to put how I play today into those lineups, I would often be the weak-tight passive player.

IMO, as far as LHE goes, those games were the first of the LAG short handed games, with lineups consisting of the likes of mostly Scandinavian LAGs such as Jarle, Keyser, TLK, Max Muller, and to a lesser LAG extent, Lagerborg. These were often the games Tommy and I were playing in, and to comment on games from years ago that you have no clue about doesn't add anything to the discussion -- cuz frankly, I think the old Crytpo games were often more aggro than the ones we play in today.

[daryn]

you win this round schneids