Correct analysis or no?

[RapidEvolution]

Though I've done some 10 table MTT's in the past, I've recently gotten into larger online tourneys (900+ entrants) with a very top-heavy prize structure. In this particlar tournament, the field's down to 29 and I've been moved to a new table. I'm in 4th position with just over 30K. The blinds are at 300/600 and antes are at 50.

1st&2nd positions fold, 3rd limps in and I pick up jacks, and raise it up another 3500. The table folds around to the first limper (Who had just over 40k before the hand started) and he re-raises another 15k.

I realy can't see just calling here (I'm basically pot committed if I'm in), and I think it's unlikely he'd limp in early position with a pair higher than mine. Is it better to fold here with a stack of about 25K or push and double-up to give myself a bette shot at winning? (The tourney leader at this point has about 140k).

My thinking was that I was either up against A-(K-10) (suited or non) or a pair lower than mine. Maybe 10's or 9's? I push all-in figuring the worst of the likely scenarios is a coin flip vs A-K or A-Q.

[No Fizzle]

It sounds to me like he either is trying to push you off ther hand and steal or he has set a trap for you. Since it was a new table it would be impossible to have any kind of read on him, so I'd assign the chances of either as 50-50.

With you having a deep stack in 4th chip position, there is plenty of time left to play. Especially, in a tourney with a top-heavy prize structure.

I fold, make a note and play on.

[DQuadfather]

Hard without any reads and, having just come to the table, exactly why it's a tough spot.

With two or more shorties at the table (5-10 X BB), he may have been laying a trap with a big pair, hoping that someone would desper-shove to double through. After all, it's late in the tourny, he's got a solid stack, so he's in a position to gamble. Also, he doesnt know you just as much as you dont know him - would he really be willing to risk such a secure stack this late in the tourny on a coin flip? Some people are prone to late game meltdowns but IMO you have to err of the side caution with your stack. You're comfortable here; why reduce all your hard work into a coin toss at best.

I may be a nit, but I'd fold here and wait until I found a better spot to get my money in the middle.

[RapidEvolution]

The 4th position was in reference to my position at the table, not the chip standings. As far as that went, I was 14th. Not sure how much that changes things, though. Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Absent a specific read, it's not a huge mistake to traet a limp-reraises as AA or KK.

[RapidEvolution]

[ QUOTE ]
Hard without any reads and, having just come to the table, exactly why it's a tough spot.

With two or more shorties at the table (5-10 X BB), he may have been laying a trap with a big pair, hoping that someone would desper-shove to double through. After all, it's late in the tourny, he's got a solid stack, so he's in a position to gamble. Also, he doesnt know you just as much as you dont know him - would he really be willing to risk such a secure stack this late in the tourny on a coin flip? Some people are prone to late game meltdowns but IMO you have to err of the side caution with your stack. You're comfortable here; why reduce all your hard work into a coin toss at best.

I may be a nit, but I'd fold here and wait until I found a better spot to get my money in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]



Hmmm, the shortie trap wasn't something I'd considered. Most of my reasoning was based on low probability of AA-QQ, but there were definitely 2 stacks with < 5k.

Was my read of his re-raising hands too broad given his stack?

[No Fizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
The 4th position was in reference to my position at the table, not the chip standings. As far as that went, I was 14th. Not sure how much that changes things, though. Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it changes much in this case, you had plenty of chips left. This doesn't seem like the right time to risk a significant portion of your stack. Take the nit route, fold, and keep an eye on the limp/raiser to see if he's a tricky player or a foolish donk.

[rodders133]

In my experience, his holding is screaming AA or KK.

[thrasher789]

almost identical thing happened to me recently when I was holding JJ and I ended up pushing (I was more short stacked than you though) and he had KK

[Edukashun]

[ QUOTE ]
In my experience, his holding is screaming AA or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]