AQ min-raised on the bubble

wiggs73 · #1 04-15-2006, 11:24 AM

Read on villain is that he's calling a push ~60-70% of the time and that I'm ahead ~90% of the time. He min raises when he wants the blinds but at the same time has a pretty loose calling range. SB is attempting to fold into the money. Anyway, the hand...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

SB (t1240)
Hero (t2145)
UTG (t8096)
Button (t2019)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t800, 2 folds, Hero?

Phil Van Sexton · #2 04-15-2006, 11:26 AM

Screw this crap. Push.

ItalianFX · #3 04-15-2006, 12:08 PM

If he is as loose as you say he is, this is a push without a doubt. Even without a read, UTG probably has a deep minraising range, but I would think he has top 50%. Even putting UTG on top 25%, you're still a 60/40 favorite.

JSH06 · #4 04-15-2006, 12:16 PM

"Read on villain is that he's calling a push ~60-70% of the time and that I'm ahead ~90% of the time"
Doesn't this line make it a pretty easy decision? Push!!!!!!!! You aren't that far ahead of SB. If he doubles up he actually has more chips than you.

wiggs73 · #5 04-15-2006, 12:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"Read on villain is that he's calling a push ~60-70% of the time and that I'm ahead ~90% of the time"
Doesn't this line make it a pretty easy decision?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well no, since busting 4th isn't desirable. Being ahead 90% of the time doesn't mean that it'll hold up 90% of the time.

AndrewB · #6 04-15-2006, 12:51 PM

Easy push, unless folding into 3rd is what you are going for.

ItalianFX · #7 04-15-2006, 12:52 PM

So the real question is not if you should push against the Big stack, but whether the SB will bust out first? Where you will then probably get eaten by the blinds and forced out by a bigger stack.

JSH06 · #8 04-15-2006, 12:54 PM

The problem is that playing for 3rd is not very +EV, especially given the stack situation.

wiggs73 · #9 04-15-2006, 12:54 PM

All,

Just because I rate to have the best hand a lot of the time doesn't mean that I should always push. I'm pretty sure PVS knows that and hence the "screw this crap" comment, but the other 2 responses make it sound like "Well if you think you are ahead, you should go all-in". Correct me if I'm wrong, but that's just how I felt reading them. And I can create a thousand situations where villain could flip up a hand that I'm a 70% favorite over and I'd fold without thinking.

I've been playing around with this hand in SNGPT, treating villain's min-raise as a push since I expect to end up all-in anyway. It's actually very close.

JSH06 · #10 04-15-2006, 12:57 PM

I don't think that just because you're ahead you should fold. However, I don't think folding here and waiting for the SB to bust out. That is the point I'm trying to make. I don't like getting into the $ & blinding myself out in 3rd. There's no shame in busting out on the bubble once in a while if you gave yourself a shot to win and made the right decision.