UFC 74 thread

[JasonK]

I would never use the term great when describing any bit of Kos' standup. Diego was nearly forced to retire before their fight and Kos couldn't KO him. My memory sucks, but I don't recall him even coming close to KOing Diego.

Then again, I would never have said anything that good about Serra's standup and we all know what he did to GSP.

[apple11]

Won't their be a lot of value on GG due to the fact that the public will be all over randy? I imagine that will have to influence the line at least somewhat making GG profitable.

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
Kendall Grove -230
Patrick Cote +180

I think these are the best odds on that card so far. Patrick did farelly well in the Ultimate Fighter and I think he's forsure bigger and stronger than Kendall Grove. Also, he trains with GSP who just came off a humiliating loss so you can only imagine how dedicated he will be to dominating his next fight. And Patrick is his size, and could very well have been his sparring partner in training.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought you meant the other way...as in bet the farm on grove. Cote has never shown any amazing talents in any professional MMA fight IMO. Tons of hype from Cote keeps being brought up because GSP has SWORN in several interviews that Cote is an absolute beast in the gym, but a dud when it comes to showtime. People keep expecting Cote to show up better the next time, but we've never seen that ever. Remember how midboggling close Cote's line was against Lutter? Remember how lackluster his only UFC win was?

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
Won't their be a lot of value on GG due to the fact that the public will be all over randy? I imagine that will have to influence the line at least somewhat making GG profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

That depends, what do you think GG's chances of winning will be? Could Randy's popularity already be the cause for GG being -140 as opposed to -190? I don't recall heavy money coming in on randy towards fight night very often, but I certainly hope people start betting the farm on him.

[igetbadbeat]

Official Bets made


I don't see that much value in these cards but I did see bets I wanted to make. I didn't use arbitrary u's instead I used pretty much real ones.

1u on GSP(-210) to win .476u

I believe GSP is being undervalued. I'm not going to go into all the specifics, but I think GSP wins this fight close to 70% of the time. The thing that scares me most is how much Koscheck may have improved, but I don't believe Koscheck surpasses someone like GSP in this much amount of time. Fans say Kos is coming off a huge win over Diego(Diego was mindf*&*cked for that fight) and GSP is coming off a huge loss to serra...so that counts against GSP. I say it's the reason GSP is being undervalued. As a fan, I hope the fight goes into the 3rd round because I do want to see GSP and Kos wrestle for a bit. I see GSP by TKO in the 2nd though.

.405u to win .3u on Gabriel Gonzaga. Randy is a master at gameplanning and he can devise ways to exploit any hole. Unfortunately for Randy, he is facing a very well rounded fighter in GG so there's not much to exploit. I feel randy is gonna have a tough time winning this one...so much so I felt the need to put a small bet on GG.

.2u to win 4.2u on Kurt Pelligrino Vs Stevenson- I think this match is much more competitive than the odds, I'd put action pellegrino all the way down to +160.

[trixtrix]

+2100 on pellegrino?

respect.

you must be a much better lines shopper than me..

[dlorc]

All money on sobral vs heath should be on sobral.
Watch the heath machida fight for reasons why, he's horribly out of shape ( or was for machida ) and is being brought in to get babalu a win in the UFC.

He literally should be at +1000 or higher.

[anatta]

Randy Couture reminds me of myself in so many ways.

[Worm1313]

[ QUOTE ]
Roger Huerta -500
Alberto Crane +350

[/ QUOTE ]
Crane has an MMA record of 8-0 and has like 6 or 7 wins by submissions in King of the Cage, etc.

How is Huerta on the ground? I've only seen him fight once and it was a slugfest.

[List]

If Crane was +400, I'd consider taking him. I think he'll either be ko'd standing or gnped. I wish I knew more about him. If I knew he had good wrestling on top of his bjj, I'd probably take the bet at +350 and feel really good about it. More likely he won't be able to take Huerta down, and will have to rely on submitting Huerta from the bottom. 8-0 sounds impressive, but 7 of the 8 were rookies/cans. The one decent guy he beat went to decision. Might be fun to buy the kotc dvd it's on.

I think there's really good value in Babalu. He's one of the top lhw, and tends to crush guys who aren't top fighters. I doubt Heath is good enough to win close to enough. Babalu's definitely under-valued.

I think there's thin value on Mir too. Hardonk's ground game can't have improved much since his last fight, and this is probably Mir's last chance. If Mir's in decent shape, I think he crushes Hardonk the vast majority of the time. Even if he comes in overweight and crappy, I don't think he's much of a dog.