NL100 2 barrel w AK, river TP

[checktheriver]

Villain is a 18/17 TAG that seemed pretty passive.
I double barreled the turn trying to represent a big pair.
What is your action on river ? Effective stacks left are 68$.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $104.05
BB: $100
UTG: $61.10
Hero (MP): $142.85
CO: $104
BTN: $157.20

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, CO calls $4, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($13.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, CO calls $8, BTN folds

Turn: ($29.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $24</font>, CO calls $24

River: ($77.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero ??

[ofishstix]

id prolly bet like 55

[checktheriver]

If you bet 55 why not shove ? You think some hands would call 55 and fold 70 ?

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

I really hate your double barel since he called in a dry pot 3 handed. On the turn, when he calls, I think his range really crushing one pair considering that he has position (unless he's bad - is he winning or losing?). If he's a losing player I would shove the river, if he's a winning player I would c/f.

[checktheriver]

Don't you think he would raise a set or better somewhere ? I think after he calls turn he might have stuff like pair+gutshot, pair+fd.

[WHEN_WE_ESCAPE]

Shove the river to keep him honest. It's a GREAT card for us to fire w/out a K, so do it with a K, too.

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

He's a passive player, shifting ranges to slowplaying more. He's in position against the PFR with someone behind him. It's the dryest board ever. AND, he is 18/17, which means from your sample size there are like 4 hands he's calling with and not raising. I would bet a lot of money those are pocket pairs before they are suited connectors.

Why wouldn't he shove the turn with combos? I don't even think a combo draw or a SC is in his range here. The only way you could be ahead is if he's bad. If he's thinking at all, you're getting trapped on the flop and you should shut down thereafter.

[WHEN_WE_ESCAPE]

I agree with Greg here that the flop is dry enough for him to slowplay a set. But I expect something on the turn, and when it doesn't happen I'm more inclined to put him on one pair (he's passive) or a pair+combo draw (not shoving, again, passive) so I think a river shove is fine as played. There really isn't any value in c/c, that's for sure.

[Unknown Soldier]

im disagreeing with greg again [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

i think theres loads of value from Tx/pp. He could turn up with a set here, sure, but you beat his calling range imo.

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

Few things WHEN,

Why would you shove the turn here if you are trapping with a set? This is a great situation, the PFR looks like he has a hand and is betting into you.

With our bet, to a player like this, we rep backdoor clubs before we rep AK. Either way, our range is BD clubs, set, AK, bluff, overpair. There is no value for villain to call our river bet (since it was 3handed on the flop, and a really bad board to completely bluff the turn with, it's unlikely we are bluffing here) wiht a pair. That means, we are valuestacking ourselves vs a flopped set, a BD flush (which I still think isn't in his range but assume it is), or, any hand we beat will fold IMO.