NL100 2 barrel w AK, river TP

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

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im disagreeing with greg again [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]


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Doesn't mean I'm right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[spivey]

I like a bet against a donk, but c/f against a TAG. I don't think a TAG calls with Tx or something like 99 when we bet big on this river. Since he probably squeezes with JJ preflop a fair percentage of the time, I don't think there are many overpairs in his range either.

[WHEN_WE_ESCAPE]

Greg,

I'm not sure about this, but just because any hand we beat folds doesn't mean it's a bad bet, does it? (Assuming that we are not getting called that often by a hand we lose to here).

I guess what I'm saying is we'd rather bet and have 99 fold than check and let 99 see our hand, right?

And I think some of the arguments you're using can be used against you- he's passive so he could slowplay a set here. But he's passive...so he could have AT, 99, JJ, etc, too. Right?

And as for your question, I'd shove the turn in his shoes with a set here because I don't like letting 3 streets come because I always seem to get caught [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. But the board now has some straight draws and a flush draw that we can rep or protect against with a shove.

(I might be way off, I dunno. And thanks for coming into SSNL to help out!)

[Unknown Soldier]

does suck that the river is a club, i agree. i think that makes it pretty marginal (for some reason i missed that 1st time round i need to start paying more attention), i still think there's value though. I think you'll find alot of tags aren't that deep thinkers at 100nl. They could just put you ona a bluff and call. I've seen some ridiculous calldowns against me. This comes down to op's image imo, if it's is pretty std tag/tight then i agree a c/f is best.

[traz]

I think a set is definitely possible, but so is 9Ts or TJs, or even 88 99. By that same token, 67s is conceivable and I really don't know enough about the player to say one way or the other.

In the end, I think this is really player/history dependent. I have no idea if this guy likes to float you, if you like to double barrel, etc etc, and those things really matter here. Basically given just stats I have no idea how lightly he is calling.

I could really go either way. I probably check, I'm not sure alot of T's call a river bet anyways...it all depends on how terrible the player is really

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

[ QUOTE ]
Greg,

I'm not sure about this, but just because any hand we beat folds doesn't mean it's a bad bet, does it? (Assuming that we are not getting called that often by a hand we lose to here).

I guess what I'm saying is we'd rather bet and have 99 fold than check and let 99 see our hand, right?

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I would love to have an opponent see a double barrel that got there on the river. We will get lots of action [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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And I think some of the arguments you're using can be used against you- he's passive so he could slowplay a set here. But he's passive...so he could have AT, 99, JJ, etc, too. Right?

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Passive donk is different than passive 18/17. OP doen't say anything that indicates this guy is a calling station. Also, again, do you think AT, 99, JJ call a river bet?
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And as for your question, I'd shove the turn in his shoes with a set here because I don't like letting 3 streets come because I always seem to get caught [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. But the board now has some straight draws and a flush draw that we can rep or protect against with a shove.

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Yes, and, perhaps it was a poorly worded question. If you were a 18/17 passive player, you are probably calling the turn with a set.

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(I might be way off, I dunno. And thanks for coming into SSNL to help out!)

[/ QUOTE ]Heck I might be way off! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Also, I think we need to pay more attention to what I mentioend abotu his stats before. He is 18/17, which means he's cold calling with VERY FEW hands. Players like these will ALWAYS call with pocket pairs in position (no reason not to). However, SC are the hands that might fold preflop. His range is so tight between raising and VPIP, though, that it really looks like there is only enough room for PP.

[Unknown Soldier]

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I'm not sure about this, but just because any hand we beat folds doesn't mean it's a bad bet, does it? (Assuming that we are not getting called that often by a hand we lose to here).

I guess what I'm saying is we'd rather bet and have 99 fold than check and let 99 see our hand, right?

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if we're behind his calling range and he never bluffs the river then it's a bad bet.

[LimitGod]

he bets with more hands than he calls with that we beat

therefore c/c>bet

I don't see a single hand in his calling range that we beat

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

[ QUOTE ]
he bets with more hands than he calls with that we beat

therefore c/c>bet

I don't see a single hand in his calling range that we beat

[/ QUOTE ]What hands would be bet this river with that we beat?

[early325]

shove >> c/c >>>>>>>>>>> c/f