Mitt Romney - No New Taxes!

[Copernicus]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought I read exactly the opposite recently, Copernicus.

EDIT: I am completely wrong. But an economist, Justin Wolfers, is arguing that the noise levels in the data is too large to draw conclusions and those that draw conclusions either way are doing so more on ideological blinders than any analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

the Pepperdine statistical analysis recently discussed in the WSJ showed something like 34,000:1 odds that their findings were statistically signifcant to the 99% confidence level (or maybe 95%). A lawyer responded with the "correlation != causation" argument, which the authors had already discussed. Their findings over a 25 year period or so was that 1 publicized execution resulted in 74 fewer murders.

another factoid in one of the blogs related to the article was that there have been exactly 0 documented cases of an innocent person being executed, defusing that argument.

Anyway, sorry to derail this into capital punishment.

Specific programs to reduce taxes and spending are what is needed, not pledges and not rants about eliminating the IRS and institution of a flat or VAT tax without clear plans for implementation and transition.

[theseus51]

I just hope he doesn't do a speech with "read my lips, no new taxes!"

[AlexM]

LOL. Yeah, Ron signed that pledge with his voting record long before.

Also, did he say "read my lips" first? That's the only way we'd know to believe him.

[Moseley]

[ QUOTE ]
the Pepperdine statistical analysis recently discussed in the WSJ showed something like 34,000:1 odds that their findings were statistically signifcant to the 99% confidence level (or maybe 95%). A lawyer responded with the "correlation != causation" argument, which the authors had already discussed. Their findings over a 25 year period or so was that 1 publicized execution resulted in 74 fewer murders.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since DNA, several people have been taken off of death row.

It takes more money to defend the appeals of a death sentence than it does to jail them for life.

based upon WSJ's statistics, i.e., preventing 74 murders, that's one in 3.378 million based upon a population of 250 million, and we have 300m now.

I'd rather take my chances and have our judges expending their energies, and spending my money on other things, like the illegal immigrant issue.

However, if we are going to have the death penalty, I believe it should be televised, and any channel not willing to show it, cannot broadcast for that hour.

In addition, execution must take place during prime time, not midnight.

[BigPoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
Their findings over a 25 year period or so was that 1 publicized execution resulted in 74 fewer murders.


[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't pass the sniff test.
Are we really supposed to believe that the 405 executions in Texas since the 70's resulted in 29,970 fewer murders (in a state that has around 1200 murders per year)?


I'd guess it was far more likely that 74 publicized executions resulted in 1 fewer murder than the reverse.

[BigPoppa]

Also, some idiot pledging to continue borrowing us into penury is not good news.