3R - AK deep sticky spot

[tercet]

HH converter busted...

I hate ak sometimes in spots like these

PokerStars Game #13321661924: Tournament #66750717, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em
No Limit - Level VII (150/300) - 2007/11/18 - 16:06:08 (ET)
Table '66750717 109' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: teaze1973 (26510 in chips)
Seat 2: moneymike029 (2694 in chips)
Seat 3: Lave12 (15574 in chips)
Seat 4: tzzznutz70 (6023 in chips)
Seat 5: ta'riff (30850 in chips)
Seat 6: tercet (28080 in chips)
Seat 7: ABVidale (21772 in chips)
Seat 8: roserj (27985 in chips)
Seat 9: HGWK (7570 in chips)
teaze1973: posts the ante 25
moneymike029: posts the ante 25
Lave12: posts the ante 25
tzzznutz70: posts the ante 25
ta'riff: posts the ante 25
tercet: posts the ante 25
ABVidale: posts the ante 25
roserj: posts the ante 25
HGWK: posts the ante 25
Lave12: posts small blind 150
tzzznutz70: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to tercet [Ks As]
ta'riff: folds
tercet: raises 450 to 750
ABVidale: folds
roserj: folds
HGWK: folds
teaze1973: raises 2250 to 3000
moneymike029: folds
Lave12: calls 2850
tzzznutz70: folds
tercet: calls 2250
*** FLOP *** [2h 7c 7s]
Lave12: checks
tercet: checks
teaze1973 is disconnected
teaze1973 has timed out while disconnected
teaze1973: checks
*** TURN *** [2h 7c 7s] [6s]
Lave12: bets 5100
tercet: raises 12600 to 17700
teaze1973 has timed out while disconnected
teaze1973: folds
teaze1973 is sitting out
Lave12: calls 7449 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [2h 7c 7s 6s] [7d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Lave12: shows [Js Jh] (a full house, Sevens full of Jacks)
tercet: shows [Ks As] (three of a kind, Sevens)
Lave12 collected 34623 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 34623 | Rake 0
Board [2h 7c 7s 6s 7d]
Seat 1: teaze1973 folded on the Turn
Seat 2: moneymike029 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Lave12 (small blind) showed [Js Jh] and won (34623) with a full
house, Sevens full of Jacks
Seat 4: tzzznutz70 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: ta'riff folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: tercet showed [Ks As] and lost with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 7: ABVidale folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: roserj folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: HGWK folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[jonnyd]

the cold caller scares me but i still probably shove over a good amt of time.

[Marduk]

yeah i probably just reshove pf. there's over 6k in the pot and you have about 27 behind. i don't think cold caller ever calls a shove after he flats, or he probably would've shoved himself. if he does call a shove here, you're absolutely crushing his range. there's a good chance you're flipping against co, and you have the sb's overlay, so go for it.

as played.... ugh. your line makes absolutely no sense. you smooth call the 3-bet pf, and then the flop gets checked around. co basically tells you he has ak/aq, so if the sb checked, betting the turn would be good here. but the sb leads, and with over half his stack in, he never folds. his range is almost always 99, tt, and jj after he flats pf and leads the turn like that. he ships qq+ pre, and probably ak, but if he flats it, i doubt he bets into 2 players with it on the turn. you have no chance to rep a big hand there, so just fold and save some money.

[OrrLives]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think cold caller ever calls a shove after he flats, or he probably would've shoved himself. if he does call a shove here, you're absolutely crushing his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cold callers will frequently call a 4bet preflop shove with 55-QQ at the $3 level. Fortunately, they will also call with KQ, AJ+ too.

Although I understand the desire to shove preflop, I personally like the 'just' call preflop. There is no need to 4-bet shove with the blinds this low against a 3-bettor with AK, unless you knew him to be way too aggressive preflop. You will often see a JJ+ in a 3-bettors range and you will be behind (again, this is a $3 tourney). Just take a flop and preserve your stack.

As played, I probably dump on the turn without a read. Lave12 has committed ~1/2 of his chips and is probably NOT going to fold to a shove. If Lave12 was deeper, a shove might have more merit, but that would probably just be spew as well.

[homanga]

I think pf is fine, but the turn is probably spew when it comes to shoving a FD on the turn in a 3 way pot.

[Nougat]

If I'm not mistaken, you're getting 3:1 odds to call into the pot on the turn. Your hand at that point has the 9 spades and 6 aces and kings as outs (assuming they're all clean which in this circumstance is a reasonable read. His play screams PP anywhere from 99-QQ generally depending on how he's been playing. We can discount one of the spade outs to account for the paired board and the possibility of him getting a full house down to 8 spades. So it looks reasonable to determine your outs as anywhere from 13-15 outs on the turn. Even with 13 outs, your call is marginally correct.
I think it's pretty clear you have little FE for a shove on the turn based on how much he has behind after his bet. Shoving on a semibluff is +EV if your FE is approximately 9%. If you have 15 clean outs, then your showdown expectation is ~435. With 13, it is -1348. Therefore, using the most conservative measure of only 13 outs, you need him to fold 9% of the time for this to be successful. So you can shove on the turn and still get value. But I think a call is better (please someone correct me if I'm wrong politely).
If you call a few good things for you can happen:
1)the guy behind you might call, which gives you even better value.
2)the guy behind might raise in an attempt to squeeze your money but you'll still be getting great odds to call him too even in a protected pot.
3)the guy behind you might fold in which case your variance will decrease and you've made the greatest EV decision in a HU pot.
On the river, it should be plain to you that he has an overpair by how it's been played thus far. If it's a bluff (and a maniacal one at that), he'll need you to fold more than 70% of the time in that spot. Obviously that won't be the case and it's a losing play for him to expect that. In this one case you will fold the river, but in the case he's bluffing (truly rare by now) then you will also have to do something improbable (your 30% fold) for him to show a profit. I think calling and then folding a missed river is the greatest +EV and with your stack as deep as it is relative to the blinds I don't worry about being totally handicapped. Comments, thoughts? Lemme know.

[KneeCo]

If you had just posted pf I'd say in the 3r the cold caller never has us crushed (KK/AA) and while I would be more concerned about the raiser there's 7125 out there and hero has 27305 behind, I'd prob just shove in this mtt.

If you get one caller (which I would think would be a fair bet) you need about 44% equity:
27 305 / ((27 305 * 2) + 7 125) = 0.442293675
Against TT+/AK (with an Ace dead because I figure the cold caller has one here a large % of the time) you've got 44.7.

It's marginal, and I don't fault you for just calling at all, but I think I'd shove OOP on the initial raiser.

As for the turn, I would have bet/called if he checked, but I'm not semi bluffing someone who has put in half their stack already.

P.S.
Wooo Kingston!

[OrrLives]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm not mistaken, you're getting 3:1 odds to call into the pot on the turn. Your hand at that point has the 9 spades and 6 aces and kings as outs (assuming they're all clean which in this circumstance is a reasonable read.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoops, I didn't see he had a flush draw... I guess I'm used to converted HH. Once he shoves you have to call.